Burma / Myanmar

[MrBishop]

I'm sure that everyone's read about Burma (Myanmar).
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asi...ared_in_burma/

Here's an article, just in case you've been in the dark.

* 100,000+ dead
* 1.5Million+ homeless
* No power
* No clean drinking water
* No food

So..you'd figure that Burma would be begging for help. Nope... they're refusing help. They're refusing any outside help except for food/medical supplies which the Warlord running the country promptly grabs up (supposedly to feed the troops and his regime). The referendum for the new constitution is coming fast, with no sign of delay despite the disaster.

Some are calling on a military (UN) solution - if overthrowing a military regime in another country could be called a solution to anything.
http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...739053,00.html

So...what's to be done?

[Insidious Rex]

As i said in another thread about this, invading and getting into a military combat in which civilians would surely die so that we can help civilians just seems wrong to me. Im not sure how we could justify that logically. Our only real hope is some kind of carrot and stick approach. The problem there is China would have to do the real work because they already think the US is simply out to overthrow them any chance we get. And I don’t know if China would be willing to do what it takes to get the necessary aid in there in the necessary time. So where does that leave us…

[Mari]

Maybe the UN and the US could butt out and ask China to help. China has a lot more influence over Myanmar and the countries dealing with Myanmar. Japan as well. Threats and invasions won't lead to a satisfying result if you ask me.
So far the only organizations that got clearance have been organizations with no active political goals and or opinions on the junta.
There is some unofficial, over the border assistance going on from Thailand as well.

IMO it is not the West that can act, it is the East that can get things done here.

[Earniel]

The leaders in Burma are so far divorced from reality, it's not even funny anymore. Them being so paranoid and full off themselves that they need to build an entire new capital wherever they get the fancy, is one thing. But that they were so far gone that they would rather concentrate on a pointless referendum instead of warning and helping their own people, is a whole new level of mind-destroying lunacy right there.

Military action is IMO beyond pointlessness. Most of the coastal infrastructure is destroyed, how are you going to invade that? Not to mention that another war is really what we or the Burmese people don't need.

What I would consider if the government keep stealing goods and denying access to aid, is to forego their clearance and drop packets with aid and food from the air. In the end, the releaf that brings is far less than a decent aid operation on the ground could bring, but it sure beats having the imbecility of a few kill thousands.

[MrBishop]

Originally Posted by Eärniel

The leaders in Burma are so far divorced from reality, it's not even funny anymore. Them being so paranoid and full off themselves that they need to build an entire new capital wherever they get the fancy, is one thing. But that they were so far gone that they would rather concentrate on a pointless referendum instead of warning and helping their own people, is a whole new level of mind-destroying lunacy right there.

Military action is IMO beyond pointlessness. Most of the coastal infrastructure is destroyed, how are you going to invade that? Not to mention that another war is really what we or the Burmese people don't need.

What I would consider if the government keep stealing goods and denying access to aid, is to forego their clearance and drop packets with aid and food from the air. In the end, the releaf that brings is far less than a decent aid operation on the ground could bring, but it sure beats having the imbecility of a few kill thousands.

I doubt that anyone would actually go for the military action thing. The problem with dropping aids packages is getting to the area to do so.

First: Although Burma isn't powerful in the air, they can probably muster up a few anti-air weaponry, and all it would take is for one airplane full of goods and volunteers to go crashing down to earth, for an uproar to come into effect.

Second: Myanmar would consider it an invasion/act of war. The country whose plane they knocked down would have to reply with either "We were trying to help people" or with more military support for the cargo planes.

It's not an easy decision...besides, what do you tell the parents of those in the plane? Sorry...I know that we were doing something illegal with your son/daughter, and may very well have started a war, but it was for a good cause?

The UN could always sit back and hope for an internal revolution (which they could support with food, aid, weapons (hidden amongst the aid packages), and some black-ops work.

Until the news gets a hold of it and everyone gets crucified for it.

It's a tough choice no matter how you cut it.

[Earniel]

I never said it was a good plan, mind you. The good plan is for Burma to open up the borders and let all aid in. Now. But I don't see that happening any time soon. The more they wait, the more damage is done.

The world is a mind-numbing, rotten place, really, if you have to beg people to be allowed to aid their countrymen...

And as usual it'll probably end with everyone just sitting, waiting and watching. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[Mari]

They won't do much.
China and the members of ASEAN believe in non-interference.
If the UN or the US goes in, China and the other Asian countries will be very pissed off, get even more protective and closed towards the West and it might even drive a wedge between "West" and "East", though that might be taken the problem a bit too far.
Yet, when taken historical issues in account (more specifically the colonial and war history) it doesn't seem that far fetched.

[The Gaffer]

Unfortunately, it would appear that China has its hands full.

The main problem with unilateral air drops is that they are ineffective, i.e. you don't know where to drop them. The aid agencies all seem to agree that you need to have people on the ground to assess and distribute.

[Coffeehouse]

Well, lots of interesting points by both Mari & Earniel (did I spell your name right? I keep forgetting..)

Obviously China has alot more clout now than any other nation in Asia, or the world, on the Burmese junta. And I believe they are exerting pressure on them behind the scenes. One example could be Burma's sudden turn-around to let in more aid workers, in a matter of few hours. Might be Chinese pressure.
The tragedy in this though is that China today suffered a severe earthquake in central China which sent shockwaves all the way up to Beijing, so naturally the Chinese are suddenly preoccupied with sending out their armed forces/aid workers to take care of the disaster. Indeed poor timing.

Air drops is definitely the best idea as it can get to the victims relatively quickly. The idea that the Burmese will shoot down aid planes isn't very plausible. The Burmese junta know that is outright suicide to do against the Americans. They'll protest of course.

In the end the only way this disaster will be properly taken care of is if the UN gets in to the country.
I can see it happening only if the surrounding nations, India and China (whom both have considerable influence), and Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan. They all need to coerce this junta into letting in massive amounts of aid, equipment and aid workers. Perhaps if most aid workers were from the neighbouring countries it would be easier for the junta to accept their presence.

[Lief Erikson]

Crazy how these natural disasters in Burma and now in China near coincided.

I've got to pray about it. But to pray about it and deeply mean it, I have to look at it. I just don't want to . It's painful to look.

[Coffeehouse]

Today it looks even bleaker than ever.
The Chinese and Indian gov't seem completely unwilling to pressurize the Burmese into a constructive dialogue with the international community. I spoke to a friend in the Norwegian foreign service and he seems to be saying that the Norwegian gov't, the EU, hvae tried every conceivable way of speaking to the Burmese, indirectly, directly, with and without pressure from the U.S., but nothing is working and the neighbours of Burma seem very unwilling to rise to the challenge.
I even learned today that the Indians actually have a defense agreement with the Burmese, on top ofthe Chinese have deep economic interests in the country.

What is most troubling of all is that the isolationist way of the Junta is not only working but North Korea stands as an example that even severe food shortages and disasters does not weaken its grip on power. The Junta are completely careless and it seems that the likelihood of 1.5 million deaths +/- is more likely than any foreign assistance.

The Burmese and nations around simply do not want Western interference (for some obvious historical reasons).
I don't think the Chinese, Indians are excusing the Burmese Junta, but simply they don't want to put their economic, strategic interests on the line.

In the end, human life is as ever 2nd to a string of other national interests.

[Mari]

Here, this diary may shed some light on the inside workings of aid in Birma right now:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7388880.stm

Let's hope they will be allowed to continue distributing. (Yes, I realize that the amount these people can distribute is very small)

EDIT: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7397617.stm

[Lief Erikson]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

Today it looks even bleaker than ever.
The Chinese and Indian gov't seem completely unwilling to pressurize the Burmese into a constructive dialogue with the international community. I spoke to a friend in the Norwegian foreign service and he seems to be saying that the Norwegian gov't, the EU, hvae tried every conceivable way of speaking to the Burmese, indirectly, directly, with and without pressure from the U.S., but nothing is working and the neighbours of Burma seem very unwilling to rise to the challenge.
I even learned today that the Indians actually have a defense agreement with the Burmese, on top ofthe Chinese have deep economic interests in the country.

What is most troubling of all is that the isolationist way of the Junta is not only working but North Korea stands as an example that even severe food shortages and disasters does not weaken its grip on power. The Junta are completely careless and it seems that the likelihood of 1.5 million deaths +/- is more likely than any foreign assistance.

The Burmese and nations around simply do not want Western interference (for some obvious historical reasons).
I don't think the Chinese, Indians are excusing the Burmese Junta, but simply they don't want to put their economic, strategic interests on the line.

In the end, human life is as ever 2nd to a string of other national interests.

I think you've got this right, Coffeehouse.

[MrBishop]

As if the current situation and the potential death-count from disease and malnutrition wasn't enough..now there's a second storm in the making and heading towards Myanmar at top speed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...g-Rangoon.html

The warning of a second devastating storm comes as survivors struggle to find enough food to stay alive after Cyclone Nargis hit earlier this month, leaving millions homeless.

The United Nations’ weather centre has identified a tropical storm in its early stages which is likely to become a cyclone, according to Amanda Pitt, spokeswoman of the UN humanitarian relief programme in Bangkok, Thailand.

Ms Pitt warned that a second cyclone would severely hamper deliveries of food, water and temporary housing to areas in dire need of relief.

She could not give any details about the likely size or location of a second cyclone.

But the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, part of the UN’s World Meteorological Centre said on its website that ‘the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good.’

It said the building storm was moving towards the same Irrawaddy delta region which was hit by Cyclone Nargis.

[Rían]

It's just unspeakably sick what people in power will do to the weak ...

[MrBishop]

Originally Posted by RÃ*an

It's just unspeakably sick what people in power will do to the weak ...

People in power? You're aiming too high. Everyone does it on one way or another.

Nil humanis a me alienum pota

[Mari]

Now that's very cynical.
But indeed: today I read that the junta are "giving aid" to their countrymen in the form of rotten rice.
I'm just grateful that the Junta didn't choose to completely lock the country down, but allow some people and aid in.

[Rían]

Originally Posted by MrBishop

People in power? You're aiming too high. Everyone does it on one way or another.

I agree, but people in power can do it in a bigger way

[MrBishop]

Originally Posted by Mari

Now that's very cynical.

Perhaps, but it takes more than a select few to turn someone poor into someone downtrodden.

The homeless are invisible until they try and get people's attention..and then they're 'unwanted', or 'disturbing the peace' or 'loitering'.

Thrift shops and food banks are looked down upon, and their patrons more so by association. I've heard on more than one occasion how people on welfare are lazy, greedy, use black-markets, work under the table, grifters etc etc.. despite the fact that the VAST majority aren't.
:shrug:

Society praises the accumulation of wealth and conspicuous consumption, and by design..looks down upon the poor and homeless.

[inked]

And INDIA,

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/09/wo...ia/09food.html


This seemed an appropriate thread for the topic.

What think ye?