Who do you think should be elected in 2008?

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by BeardofPants

Well Sis, from your pov he may be describing sin, but the very definition of sin pre-supposes that he has to believe in God, before it can be ascribed as a sin from his pov, no?

If I described a car, without knowing what it was, it would still be a car. People who knew what cars were could recognise it from my description. Even if no one who knew what a car was ever HEARD my description, it would still be a description of a car.

I don't, personally, understand why BJ has no real cognitive framework for the observable phenomenon we know as "sin". I merely observed that that's what he described.

If he's ever curious, people have a name for it.

[hectorberlioz]

Speaking of 2008 *cough*, I have a theory on how Hillary managed her New Hampshire comback.

Bill Clinton, that old fruitcake, had his advice for her.

1) Play expectations into the ground

If anyone remembers, Hillary's support in NH was way ahead of Obama before his Iowa win. While the Iowa certainly gave him momentum, it's kind of hard to believe in hindsight that he managed to do anything but catch up with her in the few days between...as the results showed.

If any of you were keeping up with this as I was, you'd have noticed the very fast "breakdown" of Hillary's campaign. Suddenly there was talk about her dropping out? The Clinton Campaign fueled this one on purpose if you ask me.

So in the final analysis of this aspect, I'd say Bill Clinton advised a demonstration of "breakdown" and "very low expectations" so that anything better would be a comeback. It brought the sting out of an Obama tie if the Clinton Campaign had merely waited for primary day.

2) The Crying Game

Bill's next piece of advice: play it up with the women voters.
Hillary's television breakdown was a love letter to all womankind in New Hampshire. Men, of course, would be suspicious...but women voters flock to that kind of stuff, Bill figures (and he doesn't know women?)

Pretty good strategy, if it's true.

[Curubethion]

That rather makes a lot of sense, indeed. Hillary is quite the expert politician.

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

I just don't think you all really understand what happens in an active campaign headquarters. It's bedlam. People don't sleep. The local people have a command structure, the national people have a command structure, and every person there has their own personal agenda. If you're there from out of town, God only knows where your stuff is, you haven't seen your support system in weeks, and there's always a complete stranger, who MAY be the biggest muckamuck in Lostforever County, or the head of the local Rotarians, or the publisher of the most influential paper among voters 18-24, or who may just be a wandering lunatic who wants your time and just 5 minutes with the candidate. You have to sort that out, and try to remember to brush your teeth and change your underwear occasionally.

People are not wearing their own shoes.

It's not a place where subtle strategies are developed. And, 10 minutes after the candidate shakes the last hand here, everyone is on the road to the next place.

Really, guys. You give them too much credit.

And Hillary wasn't going anywhere...she still had money in the bank. Even for her chances later, she still has to go to the convention.

[hectorberlioz]

But none of your points really count mine out though...it WAS a desperate strategy, IMO. And I think it was Bill's play as much as Hillary's.

[Belwen_of_nargothrond]

My vote would be for Hilary Clinton. It's about time we had a woman president.

[hectorberlioz]

Originally Posted by Belwen_of_nargothrond

My vote would be for Hilary Clinton. It's about time we had a woman president.

Hello Belwen of Norgothrond. Glad to have you in the discussion. Please feel free to elaborate on your feelings about Hillary or the other candidates.

[GrayMouser]

Originally Posted by hectorberlioz

Speaking of 2008 *cough*, I have a theory on how Hillary managed her New Hampshire comback.

Bill Clinton, that old fruitcake, had his advice for her.

1) Play expectations into the ground

If anyone remembers, Hillary's support in NH was way ahead of Obama before his Iowa win. While the Iowa certainly gave him momentum, it's kind of hard to believe in hindsight that he managed to do anything but catch up with her in the few days between...as the results showed.

You've gotta hand it to Ol' Slick Willy...he managed to get every pollster in NH to go along with him. Any ideas how he did that? Blackmail, bribery, or just the sheer awesomeness of being Bill Clinton?

If any of you were keeping up with this as I was, you'd have noticed the very fast "breakdown" of Hillary's campaign. Suddenly there was talk about her dropping out? The Clinton Campaign fueled this one on purpose if you ask me.

So in the final analysis of this aspect, I'd say Bill Clinton advised a demonstration of "breakdown" and "very low expectations" so that anything better would be a comeback. It brought the sting out of an Obama tie if the Clinton Campaign had merely waited for primary day.

I was following this, and I saw a campaign which had been confident of victory in Iowa and didn't have a Plan B. And the point is not that they got "anything better " but that they beat Obama against all polling and all expectations.

2) The Crying Game

Bill's next piece of advice: play it up with the women voters.
Hillary's television breakdown was a love letter to all womankind in New Hampshire. Men, of course, would be suspicious...but women voters flock to that kind of stuff, Bill figures (and he doesn't know women?)

Pretty good strategy, if it's true.

Yes, women flocked to Hilary and one reason was analysis liked this, which poured out of the MSM (I'm looking at you, Chris Matthews).

The press and pundits dealt with this in one of two ways:

1) Ooooh, she's crying, isn't that just like a woman... do you want a girl as your Commander-in-Chief?

2) Your perspective... she's a cold, calculating b**ch (and even then her husband has to tell her what to do), who believes- like you- that women are empty-headed little chucklebrains who are easily fooled, not like us rational clear-headed manly men.

The combination of the two, which poured out from the airwaves, resulted in a lot of people, women especially, being extremely p-d off.

In the lib/Dem blogosphere you can here countless women (and quite a few men) who were saying "I'm not a Clinton supporter, but I'd have voted for her that night just to stuff it to the media" for their smug misogyny.

[hectorberlioz]

Originally Posted by GrayMouser

You've gotta hand it to Ol' Slick Willy...he managed to get every pollster in NH to go along with him. Any ideas how he did that? Blackmail, bribery, or just the sheer awesomeness of being Bill Clinton?

It's called the campaign PR machine...

I was following this, and I saw a campaign which had been confident of victory in Iowa and didn't have a Plan B. And the point is not that they got "anything better " but that they beat Obama against all polling and all expectations.

All I'm saying is that Clinton was never below Obama in ground support, yet the polls showed him way ahead. The polls were quite accurate for the Republican side...in fact they were pretty close in showing the support on the democratic side, except as regards to Hilary.

Yes, women flocked to Hilary and one reason was analysis liked this, which poured out of the MSM (I'm looking at you, Chris Matthews).

The press and pundits dealt with this in one of two ways:

1) Ooooh, she's crying, isn't that just like a woman... do you want a girl as your Commander-in-Chief?

Well maybe that's only as bad as Hillary saying that Obama hadn't done the "spade work" she had.
Try reading into that one...

2) Your perspective... she's a cold, calculating b**ch (and even then her husband has to tell her what to do), who believes- like you- that women are empty-headed little chucklebrains who are easily fooled, not like us rational clear-headed manly men.

It is? That's my view? I think Bill Clinton feels like that. And yes I do think she's calculating. She's running for President for goodness sakes, not to replace Martha Stewart. She and Bill are a good team, that's all there is to it.

The combination of the two, which poured out from the airwaves, resulted in a lot of people, women especially, being extremely p-d off.

In the lib/Dem blogosphere you can here countless women (and quite a few men) who were saying "I'm not a Clinton supporter, but I'd have voted for her that night just to stuff it to the media" for their smug misogyny.

EXACTLY. So you agree with Bill Clinton, too.

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by GrayMouser

You've gotta hand it to Ol' Slick Willy...he managed to get every pollster in NH to go along with him. Any ideas how he did that? Blackmail, bribery, or just the sheer awesomeness of being Bill Clinton?



I was following this, and I saw a campaign which had been confident of victory in Iowa and didn't have a Plan B. And the point is not that they got "anything better " but that they beat Obama against all polling and all expectations.



Yes, women flocked to Hilary and one reason was analysis liked this, which poured out of the MSM (I'm looking at you, Chris Matthews).

The press and pundits dealt with this in one of two ways:

1) Ooooh, she's crying, isn't that just like a woman... do you want a girl as your Commander-in-Chief?

2) Your perspective... she's a cold, calculating b**ch (and even then her husband has to tell her what to do), who believes- like you- that women are empty-headed little chucklebrains who are easily fooled, not like us rational clear-headed manly men.

I *heart* GrayMouser.

The combination of the two, which poured out from the airwaves, resulted in a lot of people, women especially, being extremely p-d off.

In the lib/Dem blogosphere you can here countless women (and quite a few men) who were saying "I'm not a Clinton supporter, but I'd have voted for her that night just to stuff it to the media" for their smug misogyny.

I feel ya. There are a whole lotta people not getting this, even now.

Originally Posted by hectorberlioz

It's called the campaign PR machine...




All I'm saying is that Clinton was never below Obama in ground support, yet the polls showed him way ahead. The polls were quite accurate for the Republican side...in fact they were pretty close in showing the support on the democratic side, except as regards to Hilary.

Election Polls in the 1980s and 1990s Missed the Mark in Biracial Elections

Problems with pre-election polls in several high-profile biracial elections in the 1980s and early 1990s raised the question of whether covert racism remained an impediment to black candidates. White candidates in most of these races generally did better on Election Day than they were doing in the polls, while their black opponents tended to end up with about the same level of support as the polls indicated they had.

This phenomenon was first noticed in the 1982 race for governor of California, where Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, narrowly lost to Republican George Deukmejian, despite polls showing him with a lead ranging from 9 to 22 points. The next year, African American Democrat Harold Washington barely won his race for mayor of Chicago against Republican Bernard Epton. Pre-election polls taken within the last two weeks of the campaign showed Washington with a 14-point lead.

Three highly visible races in 1989 and 1990 also followed this pattern, though in two instances at least one late poll signaled a close race. Virginia Democrat and African American Douglas Wilder edged white Republican Marshall Coleman by less than one percentage point to become the nation's first elected black governor. But two of three polls conducted just days before the election showed Wilder leading by double-digits; a third poll had him 4 points ahead.

Even an exit poll conducted on Election Day showed Wilder winning by 10 points, while accurately tallying the vote in the other two statewide races. Unlike most exit polls that use an anonymous written ballot to collect voters' responses, this one had interviewers asking voters face-to-face how they voted, a situation that might increase the pressure to provide a socially desirable response.

Also in 1989, Democrat David Dinkins, an African American, won victory over Republican Rudy Giuliani in the race for mayor of New York by a slight two points, despite leading by 18 points in a poll conducted by the New York Observer a week before the election.

In the following year, another prominent election featured African American Democrat Harvey Gantt in a bitter race against Republican Sen. Jesse Helms of North Carolina. Two of three independent polls conducted just before the election showed Gantt leading Helms, but Helms prevailed by six percentage points on Election Day. Race was an issue in the campaign as evidenced by a Helms campaign television advertisement featuring a fictional white job seeker who lost out to a minority candidate because of a racial quota. The ad charged that Gantt supported hiring quotas.

In 1992, black Democrat Carol Moseley Braun won a 10-point victory over Republican Richard Williamson in a race for a U.S. Senate seat from Illinois. But polls taken just days before the election showed her with a lead ranging from 17 to 20 points. Interestingly, in the Democratic primary, Moseley Braun trailed incumbent Sen. Alan Dixon by a wide margin in two polls taken just a week before she won the election. ...Pew Research

Well maybe that's only as bad as Hillary saying that Obama hadn't done the "spade work" she had.

Give me a break. "Spade work" is a perfectly respectable expression. That's like saying no one can use the word "fruit", as regards pie, because one of the pollsters is gay.

[hectorberlioz]

Originally Posted by sisterandcousinandaunt

Give me a break. "Spade work" is a perfectly respectable expression. That's like saying no one can use the word "fruit", as regards pie, because one of the pollsters is gay.

...can you give me another example of when it was used on the campaign trail? Must I repeat the cliche scenario: imagine if I a Republican had said it?


Anyhow...here's some REAL analyisis on why Hillary won NH:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/hor...ton_won_1.html

[Insidious Rex]

So who's going to be the first to mention the words "brokered convention"?

Woops guess it was me...

Im just very curious how such a thing would go down in todays hyper media coverage age where every little thing is over scrutinized.

[hectorberlioz]

Well you said it IR...brokered convention it is. The question is: will GOP voter support still be so split that the party recruits someone like Gingrich, Tom Coburn, or...Bill Frist?!

[brownjenkins]

Originally Posted by sisterandcousinandaunt

I don't, personally, understand why BJ has no real cognitive framework for the observable phenomenon we know as "sin". I merely observed that that's what he described.

If he's ever curious, people have a name for it.

"Sin" presupposes the existance of absolutes, as opposed to the relative nature of reality. It's observable, but what it is observed as depends upon the observer.

But that would be philosophy.

[hectorberlioz]

This race is getting crazy....read this


So Santorum isn't exactly the best guy to be trashing McCain...Read why here

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by hectorberlioz

This race is getting crazy....read this


So Santorum isn't exactly the best guy to be trashing McCain...Read why here

It's a heckuva ride. *shakes head*

[Gwaimir Windgem]

How's Cthulhu doing in the primaries, Hector?

[hectorberlioz]

Originally Posted by Gwaimir Windgem

How's Cthulhu doing in the primaries, Hector?

Very funny. He'll win Nevada.

[The last sane person]

Originally Posted by Gwaimir Windgem

How's Cthulhu doing in the primaries, Hector?

How very apt.

[hectorberlioz]

Time for some reassessments.

Romney:
It doesn't catapult him to frontrunner status, though he technically is (delegates, which nobody cares about). But it's back to gridlock status, which, if I'm correct on my history, is a first. Three (four, WY) primaries and three different winners. According to the exit polls, Romney won the GOP vote by a large majority. He doesn't have to win South Carolina, especially since he's in big competition in Nevada. But it would be great if he overtook Huckabee (for me, as well as for his candidacy).

McCain:
He isn't finished yet. South Carolina would put him back at the helm, overshadowing Romney's win in MI. Florida is soon and 'Honest' John is seriously competing there, but he'll have to seriously duke it out with Giuliani who is desperate for a first time win, and a "winner-take-all" delegate state at that. If he loses SC (he'll win), he's over the ship. Same if he loses Florida, even after a SC win.

Huckabee:
Hasn't played well in the North. One win at his back and two distant third place finishes? Romney still has time to catch up in SC, and with his gaffe machine on at all times of the day, Huckabee is going downhill. He needs to place first in SC. If he places second, he can still go a little further...but Romney...and he might place third, thus his demise.

Giuliani:
Florida Florida Florida. As explained above, this is a winner take all state, which will catapult Rudy back onto the front page scene. If he loses, he'll stay in until California or Texas, where he has also campaigned hard. If he wins Florida over McCain, this primary season will be the most historic on pretty much all levels.

Thompson:
Looking unlikely that Fred will do his comeback thing in South Carolina, if the polls are right. He polls behind Mitt still. However, ground support is constantly switching and Fred could be rallying his win. Provided that he has taken on McCain and Huckabee strongly enough, Fred can win a close second or tie at best and stick around for his easy Tennessee (woohoo!!!) win, which could give him enough clout to take on another state. If not, he's done. It's also doubtful that Fred will even want to stick around if he loses SC.

Also, some good reading on "poll bumps".
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Conten...4/597wqxwu.asp