Paris Is Burning - Page 7

Spock · 12-02-2005, 02:08 PM

hope that we can adjust as well as Steve Martin in "The Jerk" did when he found out he wasn't black.

Spock · 12-02-2005, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sun-star

I'd take the Muslims over the astrologers any day...

You realize that makes no sense.

sun-star · 12-02-2005, 02:11 PM

I'd rather trust my own experience that our society will not change for the worse when it has a substantial proportion of non-white non-Christian members, than believe in astrologers' predictions.

That make more sense?

Butterbeer · 12-02-2005, 02:12 PM

what? five million heavily armed muslims against a few wishy washy astrologers?

i'd back the muslims too!

Spock · 12-02-2005, 02:15 PM

BB at least you caught the meat of the post..

Predictions are made, social science data evaluated, etc. Muslims don't figure into that statement, they only are the end result if no action is taken to stem the tide.

Draken · 12-02-2005, 02:21 PM

Ah good old predictions in social science. Anyone who pays the slightest bit of attention to them really should check out those of Paul Ehrlich in the late 60s/early 70s. Very influential and (at the time) respected Stanford professor who predicted with a fair degree of confidence that by the close of the 20th century:

Countries such as UK and India would have ceased to exist
Demand would have used up most of the planet's resources
The USA would have had to take action to keep its population below the maximum imaginable number the country could sustain (150 million).

Etc, etc.

I'm sure everyone was predicting dire things for America after the 1960s riots and for the UK after the 1980s riots. Well guess what, both countries are still there, and I dare say so will France be after we're all pushing up daisies.

The Gaffer · 12-02-2005, 02:51 PM

Indeed. "Rivers of blood" anyone?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/timelin...rs_blood.shtml

Spock · 12-02-2005, 04:36 PM

Draken, we're not talking idle speculation. These predictions by social scientist, in the most, are based upon statistical data of birth records and immigration.

Butterbeer · 12-02-2005, 04:48 PM

and that's possibly just the official data ...

word on the street here is, that ain't anywhere near ..

not that i have any problem with it ... whattya going to do? i have my own life to lead.

but it bears thinking about ...

***Earniel*** · 12-02-2005, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spock

No it has been predicted by those fields of social sciences that deal with such things, for over three years now. Reality what a concept!

The movement of populations and shifts in populations are one thing. But there are so many influencing factors (that can't be determined yet) playing in this as well, that making assumptions over how the societies will be in half a century and more, is sketchy at best.

Consider the riot-situation in France. All that chaos was started by the death of only two youngsters. The motivation (the resentment against the goverment, the having no hope for the future ect..) was already present in the population but without the death of those two teenagers the riot may have never sparked and grown.

Who could foresee that such a little incident had so great consequences? Who could have predicted that one murder in Sarajevo started the first World War? Who could have guessed that one woman refusing to give her place to a white man could lead to such a social upheaval?

You can't predict this. You can't forsee this and take it into account while making predictions. And these have an enormous impact on societies.

So making predictions about societies based on birth rates and immigration rates is one thing. But it's at best only a BAU-scenario: how will thing look then if everything goes on as it does today?

One has to be careful to heed these 'predictions'. IMO they are too static and sketchy.

And please, do enlighten me what you mean by that last sentence?

Butterbeer · 12-02-2005, 06:04 PM

Actually the first world war is a bad example there Earniel .. it could and was forseen, all the nations arming, various alliances ... ( i have studied this in depth - long ago, mind, getting a first)

the death of one man? nay that was but a trigger - it was going to happen anyway.

regarding Paris - well, ok, but it would have been something else then.

But, look you, what was the Muslim or Asian or African or whatever / wherever poulation in France, Germany and the UK pre war?

What is it now?

What are the trends?

Integration is a good thing, but if states such as france that are rigidly backward looking in terms of history and have quite culturally (mainstream) ingrained nationalistic ideals in terms of defending it's heritage and language (no bad thing on it's own) but have significant growing immigrant cultures that are not being integrated, then Spock is clearly right .... the demographics are quite clear ... you cannot bury your head in the sand like a drunken french foreign legionairre ... partly because it'll not be very pleasant

...

sand is not pleasant in the eyes or mouth

so, yes, maybe sketchy but an indicator nevertheless - the world is smaller then ever before now with low cost flights, cars, trains, world wide internet and media access, free markets etc etc .... the movement of people and ideas of identity are changing at rates never ever seen on this earth, and new situations arise ...

the world is changing, and we must ALL adapt - if we wish to live happy, peaceful and worthwhile lives.

***Earniel*** · 12-02-2005, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterbeer

so, yes, maybe sketchy but an indicator nevertheless - the world is smaller then ever before now with low cost flights, cars, trains, world wide internet and media access, free markets etc etc .... the movement of people and ideas of identity are changing at rates never ever seen on this earth, and new situations arise ...

I never said such studies would be worthless. I think they can be very interesting. It is certainly something to remember (and perhaps even take action if the proposed future is not an improvement).

All I'm saying is that one must be careful to accept these predictions as inescapable. Trends and changes in populations are certainly happening, and to some level can also be predicted. But there are other unpredictatble factors that can send societies to evolve in a quite different direction.

Butterbeer · 12-02-2005, 06:24 PM

...yeah, usually they are called the germans!

best BB

***Earniel*** · 12-02-2005, 06:37 PM

In any case, that certainly was a trend you couldn't spot in birth rates and immigration records.

Insidious Rex · 12-03-2005, 12:00 PM

Well welcome to the human continuum. Perhaps the Neanderthals should have cried and moaned about those damn homo sapiens when they had the chance eh? Well personally I say just strap yourself in for the ride. And let nature take its proper course.

Spock · 12-03-2005, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterbeer

?
But, look you, what was the Muslim or Asian or African or whatever / wherever poulation in France, Germany and the UK pre war?

What is it now?

What are the trends?

Integration is a good thing, but if states such as france that are rigidly backward looking in terms of history and have quite culturally (mainstream) ingrained nationalistic ideals in terms of defending it's heritage and language (no bad thing on it's own) but have significant growing immigrant cultures that are not being integrated, then Spock is clearly right .... the demographics are quite clear ... you cannot bury your head in the sand like a drunken french foreign legionairre ... partly because it'll not be very pleasant

...
situations arise ...

YES, BB & I AGREE **IT'S A FESTIVUS MIRACLE!!

The 'muslimisation' of Europe is happening, but you have to look around to see it. Simply playing "lets all get along" won't change the fact that it's happening.

rohirrim TR · 12-03-2005, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

Well welcome to the human continuum. Perhaps the Neanderthals should have cried and moaned about those damn homo sapiens when they had the chance eh? Well personally I say just strap yourself in for the ride. And let nature take its proper course.

so when X-Men comes true what should we do? eliminate them or live with them?

Insidious Rex · 12-03-2005, 09:26 PM

Well certainly dont ban them from marrying...

rohirrim TR · 12-08-2005, 05:56 PM

*sigh*
geez rex why you gotta take life so seriously? lighten up a little. after all some straight people should not be allowed to marry. BTW were off topic this is about france and stuff not Canada.

Insidious Rex · 12-08-2005, 06:22 PM

Hey thats my version of dry humor. Sometimes you have to figure it out without the smilie giveaways...

12-02-2005, 02:11 PM	#123
sun-star Lady of Letters Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Either Oxford or Kent, England Posts: 2,476	I'd rather trust my own experience that our society will not change for the worse when it has a substantial proportion of non-white non-Christian members, than believe in astrologers' predictions. That make more sense? __________________ And all the time the waves, the waves, the waves Chase, intersect and flatten on the sand As they have done for centuries, as they will For centuries to come, when not a soul Is left to picnic on the blazing rocks, When England is not England, when mankind Has blown himself to pieces. Still the sea, Consolingly disastrous, will return While the strange starfish, hugely magnified, Waits in the jewelled basin of a pool.

12-02-2005, 02:15 PM	#125
Spock An enigma in a conundrum Join Date: Oct 1999 Posts: 6,476	BB at least you caught the meat of the post.. Predictions are made, social science data evaluated, etc. Muslims don't figure into that statement, they only are the end result if no action is taken to stem the tide. __________________ Vizzini: "HE DIDN'T FALL?! INCONCEIVABLE!!" Inigo: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

12-02-2005, 02:21 PM	#126
Draken Elf Lord Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Durham, England Posts: 694	Ah good old predictions in social science. Anyone who pays the slightest bit of attention to them really should check out those of Paul Ehrlich in the late 60s/early 70s. Very influential and (at the time) respected Stanford professor who predicted with a fair degree of confidence that by the close of the 20th century: Countries such as UK and India would have ceased to exist Demand would have used up most of the planet's resources The USA would have had to take action to keep its population below the maximum imaginable number the country could sustain (150 million). Etc, etc. I'm sure everyone was predicting dire things for America after the 1960s riots and for the UK after the 1980s riots. Well guess what, both countries are still there, and I dare say so will France be after we're all pushing up daisies. __________________ I'm beset by self-doubt ....or am I?

12-02-2005, 02:51 PM	#127
The Gaffer Elf Lord Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: In me taters Posts: 3,288	Indeed. "Rivers of blood" anyone? http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/timelin...rs_blood.shtml Last edited by The Gaffer : 12-02-2005 at 02:52 PM. Reason: Adding link

12-02-2005, 04:36 PM	#128
Spock An enigma in a conundrum Join Date: Oct 1999 Posts: 6,476	Draken, we're not talking idle speculation. These predictions by social scientist, in the most, are based upon statistical data of birth records and immigration. __________________ Vizzini: "HE DIDN'T FALL?! INCONCEIVABLE!!" Inigo: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." Last edited by Spock : 12-02-2005 at 04:37 PM.

12-02-2005, 02:08 PM	#121
Spock An enigma in a conundrum Join Date: Oct 1999 Posts: 6,476	hope that we can adjust as well as Steve Martin in "The Jerk" did when he found out he wasn't black.

12-02-2005, 02:12 PM	#124
Butterbeer Elf Lord Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: here and there Posts: 3,514	what? five million heavily armed muslims against a few wishy washy astrologers? i'd back the muslims too!

12-02-2005, 04:48 PM	#129
Butterbeer Elf Lord Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: here and there Posts: 3,514	and that's possibly just the official data ... word on the street here is, that ain't anywhere near .. not that i have any problem with it ... whattya going to do? i have my own life to lead. but it bears thinking about ...

12-02-2005, 06:04 PM	#131
Butterbeer Elf Lord Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: here and there Posts: 3,514	Actually the first world war is a bad example there Earniel .. it could and was forseen, all the nations arming, various alliances ... ( i have studied this in depth - long ago, mind, getting a first) the death of one man? nay that was but a trigger - it was going to happen anyway. regarding Paris - well, ok, but it would have been something else then. But, look you, what was the Muslim or Asian or African or whatever / wherever poulation in France, Germany and the UK pre war? What is it now? What are the trends? Integration is a good thing, but if states such as france that are rigidly backward looking in terms of history and have quite culturally (mainstream) ingrained nationalistic ideals in terms of defending it's heritage and language (no bad thing on it's own) but have significant growing immigrant cultures that are not being integrated, then Spock is clearly right .... the demographics are quite clear ... you cannot bury your head in the sand like a drunken french foreign legionairre ... partly because it'll not be very pleasant ... sand is not pleasant in the eyes or mouth so, yes, maybe sketchy but an indicator nevertheless - the world is smaller then ever before now with low cost flights, cars, trains, world wide internet and media access, free markets etc etc .... the movement of people and ideas of identity are changing at rates never ever seen on this earth, and new situations arise ... the world is changing, and we must ALL adapt - if we wish to live happy, peaceful and worthwhile lives.

12-02-2005, 06:24 PM	#133
Butterbeer Elf Lord Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: here and there Posts: 3,514	...yeah, usually they are called the germans! best BB

12-02-2005, 06:37 PM	#134
*Earniel* The Chocoholic Sea Elf Administrator Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: N?n in Eilph (Belgium) Posts: 14,363	In any case, that certainly was a trend you couldn't spot in birth rates and immigration records. __________________ We are not things.

12-03-2005, 12:00 PM	#135
Insidious Rex Quasi Evil Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Maryland, US Posts: 4,634	Well welcome to the human continuum. Perhaps the Neanderthals should have cried and moaned about those damn homo sapiens when they had the chance eh? Well personally I say just strap yourself in for the ride. And let nature take its proper course. __________________ "People's political beliefs don't stem from the factual information they've acquired. Far more the facts people choose to believe are the product of their political beliefs." "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

12-03-2005, 09:26 PM	#138
Insidious Rex Quasi Evil Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Maryland, US Posts: 4,634	Well certainly dont ban them from marrying... __________________ "People's political beliefs don't stem from the factual information they've acquired. Far more the facts people choose to believe are the product of their political beliefs." "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

12-08-2005, 06:22 PM	#140
Insidious Rex Quasi Evil Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Maryland, US Posts: 4,634	Hey thats my version of dry humor. Sometimes you have to figure it out without the smilie giveaways... __________________ "People's political beliefs don't stem from the factual information they've acquired. Far more the facts people choose to believe are the product of their political beliefs." "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

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