Who do you think should be elected in 2008?

[Mari]

Today I saw a picture of Obama's wife for the first time. They make a nicer couple than Hillary and Bill. Hill Bill...

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by Curufin

I think what a lot of Europeans don't realize is that most of our states are bigger than your countries... And with the expansion of the EU, they're also becoming more and more similar politically...

What, that Europe has 700+ million people compared to USAs 300 million people?

[The Gaffer]

Originally Posted by sisterandcousinandaunt

Here, this talks about committee people. It's the first line.

I was reading about Obama not paying the street money yesterday. Is this a mistake? Is he going to alienate the people he needs to get the vote out in November?

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by The Gaffer

I was reading about Obama not paying the street money yesterday. Is this a mistake? Is he going to alienate the people he needs to get the vote out in November?

He absolutely believes he somehow transcends the existing party. That's what has the superdelegates worried. The other thing that worries them is the nature of his support. He's confident (at least talking) that Hillary's main support will still follow him in the general election. But folks on the ground aren't so sure.

You can win every state college campus and fern bar in the country, but I really don't believe you'll win the general election unless labor and the trades turn out for you.

Here's a guy with an interesting take on it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art..._a_decent.html


*reaches for Maalox* I can't believe we're suddenly turning up with all this talent, and they're fighting in the primaries. Oy.

[Prince Myshkin]

I am really worried about the elections. The primaries are turning into such a nightmare.

And Hilary is making a lot of progress catching up to Obama.

But I did think him very eloquent when I saw him speak.

I don't know, it just makes me want to rip my hair out. I wince.

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by Prince Myshkin

I am really worried about the elections. The primaries are turning into such a nightmare.

And Hilary is making a lot of progress catching up to Obama.

But I did think him very eloquent when I saw him speak.

I don't know, it just makes me want to rip my hair out. I wince.

Agree. Just settle it, for gosh sakes, and go on to win the actual ELECTION.

[GrayMouser]

No surprises from W. Virginia, but this is interesting:

There's been a lot of talk in this campaign about Barack Obama's problem with working class white voters or rural voters. But these claims are both inaccurate because they are incomplete. You can look at states like Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states and see the different numbers and they are all explained by one basic fact. Obama's problem isn't with white working class voters or rural voters. It's Appalachia. That explains why Obama had a difficult time in Ohio and Pennsylvania and why he's getting crushed in West Virginia and Kentucky.

Includes a couple of maps showing the overlap between Appalachia and the counties Hillary won by 65%.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/
Talking Points Memo


And this is cheery Democrats win Mississippi 1st.

To put this into some broader perspective, the Republicans have lost three straight Republican districts to the Democrats in by-elections this year. Hastert's district in Illinois, Louisiana 6th, and now Mississippi 1st. Each successively more Republican than the last. In Mississippi 1st, President Bush got 62% of the vote there in 2004.

Symbolic Number Update: On the symbolic level, this pulls the House GOP caucus down to 199 -- below 200.

(also from TPM)

All three of those districts were strongly Republican- R+6, R+6.5, and R+10 () respectively.

Former Speaker Denis Hastert used to cruise to re-election in the Illinois seat;
Louisiana 6th has been Republican since Nixon's Southern Strategy in the 1970s; the Mississippi 1st is very conservative.

In each case, the National Republicans poured tons of money in the fight and specifically campaigned against Obama, Nancy Pelosi and "San Francisco values"- apparently their Mississippi campaign was 24-hour Reverend Wright- and still they lost these heavily Republican seats.

Could be a long night for Republicans in November.

[hectorberlioz]

From The New Republic, an eye-opening column by Cinque Henderson. Closing paragraphs:

Barack obscured the true nature of black religious life because, to do otherwise, he would have had to answer the question, "Why are you a member of a church that is this racially divisive and such a sharp aberration to how the rest of black people worship?" When Barack beautifully suggested that the beliefs pronounced from the pulpit of Trinity in Chicago are not uncommon, he was feeding us garbage. But Barack needed to protect his reputation as a race-healer and unifier, so he told a lie about black religious life to help keep the glow of his own reputation alive. And now the evidence suggests that Barack didn't, in the end, break with Wright over his outrageous racial claims, but over his suggestion that Barack is just a politician.

That so many people have a stake in ignoring these real concerns is troubling. At least the Hillary supporters I know seem to be aware of her more unsavory traits: that she carries a knife with her that she could pull out at any minute. Not so with Obama's fans. It's nearly impossible to get them to admit any wrong in him. Given the choice, I prefer to side with the group that knows their candidate can be a jerk, rather than the group that believes their candidate is Jesus.

FULL ARTICLE HERE: http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.ht...a741c6ebb9&p=1

[GrayMouser]

Hippies!

Three former chairmen of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Wednesday, bolstering the Illinois senator's economic credentials and bipartisan appeal as he closes in on his party's nomination.

Former SEC head William Donaldson, who was appointed by Republican President George W. Bush, joined Arthur Levitt and David Ruder in backing Obama, who leads rival Hillary Clinton in the number of delegates necessary to become the Democratic White House nominee.

Levitt was appointed by former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, while Ruder was appointed by former President Ronald Reagan, a Republican.

All three commended Obama for his approach to regulation.

"Each of us has been committed to prudent economic policy and effective financial regulation for many years," they said in a joint statement along with former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, also an Obama supporter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...48591420080514

Meanwhile, Republican Presidential candidate to Republicans running for Congress- get the Hell away from me!

Republicans had sought to link Mr. Childers to Mr. Obama in an advertising campaign there. Republican leaders said they were looking to Senator John McCain of Arizona, the likely Republican nominee, as a model whose independent reputation appears to allow him to rise above party in a year when the Republican label seems tarnished.

But Mr. McCain’s advisers said the Mississippi race underlined his intention to distance himself as much as possible from Congressional Republicans.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/us...15repubs.html?
Republican Election Losses Stir Fall Fears - New York Times

[Coffeehouse]

OBAMA 2008, YES WE CAN

[Insidious Rex]

Originally Posted by GrayMouser

Former Speaker Denis Hastert used to cruise to re-election in the Illinois seat;
Louisiana 6th has been Republican since Nixon's Southern Strategy in the 1970s; the Mississippi 1st is very conservative.

In each case, the National Republicans poured tons of money in the fight and specifically campaigned against Obama, Nancy Pelosi and "San Francisco values"- apparently their Mississippi campaign was 24-hour Reverend Wright- and still they lost these heavily Republican seats.

That seems odd to me. Why make a local Mississippi congressional campaign about the pastor of the prospective democratic presidential nominee? Id be insulted if I was a republican in that district. So I dont know if that tells us that strategy wont work if McCain does it. And it didnt hurt that the democrat who won is pretty conservative in his belief system (pro guns, anti abortion, anti gay marriage). I think if given a conservative enough figure on the democratic side that conservatives disgruntled with the Bush administration will choose them. But Im not sure how that will fair when its McCain vs Obama. Lets hope it still works...

[hectorberlioz]

Concerning those "conservative" Democrats, Rex. It's Chuck Schumer's brilliant new strategy. The point about Republicans connecting these local Democrats to the national party---Obama---is to demonstrate that they aren't as "moderate" as they seem.

Case in point: Bob Casey jr.

[GrayMouser]

Originally Posted by hectorberlioz

The point about Republicans connecting these local Democrats to the national party---Obama---is to demonstrate that they aren't as "moderate" as they seem.

Exactly. Except it isn't working. That's the point.

[hectorberlioz]

Okay, that's fine. But it shouldn't be out of bounds game-playing.

I agree that connecting local Democrats to Jeremiah Wright is quite the stretch.

[GrayMouser]

Originally Posted by hectorberlioz

Okay, that's fine. But it shouldn't be out of bounds game-playing.

I agree that connecting local Democrats to Jeremiah Wright is quite the stretch.

Okay, sorry, I'm not saying it is out of bounds in any moral sense- sure, it's generally legit to tie your opponent to the party standard, even if he/she deviates from that quite a bit. Democrats in Maine will try to imply Olympia Snowe is a Bush clone etc.

I'm just sayin', so far in this cycle, it ain't workin'- BU WA HA HA HA HA!

(Needless to say, I still believe that, no matter how much the electoral fundamentals are in their favour, the Democrats still have a pretty good chance of following their recent tradition of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.)

[hectorberlioz]

Here's to hoping they do. *swigs*

The question, I suppose, is whether McCain is drawing enough independents and McCain-o-Crats to outnumber the pot-smoking, Rolling Stone magazine-reading college students.

[hectorberlioz]

So true of the media narrative...

[Jonathan]

What do you call someone who doesn't like old people? A geriatrist?

[hectorberlioz]

Originally Posted by Jonathan

What do you call someone who doesn't like old people? A geriatrist?

An "age-ist" . Ageism....the new prejudice of America!

Bah, McCain is too mature to complain about "age-ism". I'll do that for him.

[The Gaffer]

Ageism is illegal in this country. Seriously. You can't cite a person's age as a reason not to employ them, for example.

But then, you can still vote for whoever you want for whatever reason you want, fortunately for Boris Johnson.