Who do you think should be elected in 2008?

[Coffeehouse]

How is the Electoral College map looking now, as opposed to on the 29th of September?

There are some changes, and they are all uniformly in favour of Obama.

State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000
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Ohio (20) 48.9 44.9 Obama +4.0 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Florida (27) 48.3 45.3 Obama +3.0 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1
Nevada (5) 49.6 46.6 Obama +3.0 Toss Up Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5
North Carolina (15) 48.2 47.6 Obama +0.6 Toss Up Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8
Missouri (11) 47.8 47.5 Obama +0.3 Toss Up Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3
Indiana (11) 46.0 48.5 McCain +2.5 Toss Up Bush +20.7 Bush +15.7
Virginia (13) 49.9 45.1 Obama +4.8 Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
Colorado (9) 49.3 45.3 Obama +4.0 Toss Up Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4

Wisconsin (10) 51.0 43.0 Obama +8.0 Leaning Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2
Michigan (17) 49.1 42.1 Obama +7.0 Leaning Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2
New Mexico (5) 49.8 42.5 Obama +7.3 Leaning Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1
Washington (11) 49.8 41.8 Obama +8.0 Leaning Kerry +8.2 Gore +5.5
Georgia (15) 44.0 51.5 McCain +7.5 Leaning Bush +16.6 Bush +11.7
New Jersey (15) 50.8 40.2 Obama +10.6 Solid Kerry +6.7 Gore +15.8
Oregon (7) 49.8 40.8 Obama +9.0 Solid Kerry +4.2 Gore +0.5
Iowa (7) 51.3 41.8 Obama +9.5 Solid Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3
Pennsylvania (21) 51.6 39.2 Obama +12.4 Solid Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2
Minnesota (10) 52.2 42.4 Obama +9.8 Solid Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4
New Hampshire (4) 52.0 41.3 Obama +10.7 Solid Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3

On Sep 29th the state of Ohio was slightly in favour of McCain, at 1.2+ percentage points in his favour. But now it's tilted heavily in Obama's favour, at 4.0+ percentages points in his favour. That's quite a shift and something that should worry McCain.

The state of Florida tilted 1.6+ percentage points in McCains favour. That was the 29th of Sep. But now it is 3.0+ percentage points in Obama's favour, quite the change in a state that is seen as a must-win for McCain.

The changes are similar all across the battleground states. Nevada has turned from favouring McCain to a slight edge for Obama.

The most worrying signs for McCain is that New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all have gone from a slight lead for Obama to a solid lead for Obama.
Sep 29: October 9:
New Hamp: Obama 1.3+ Obama 10.7+
Minnesota: Obama 2.8+ Obama 9.8+
Wisconsin: Obama 3.8+ Obama 8.0+
Pennsyl.: Obama 4.8+ Obama 12.4+

Of the 8 states that are currently toss up, McCain must win all of them.
And he is only leading in one, Indiana.
The rest he is trailing: Ohio (Obama 4.0+), Florida (Obama 3.0+), Nevada (Obama 3.0+), North Carolina (Obama 0.6+), Missouri (Obama 0.3+), Virginia (Obama 4.8+) and Colorado (Obama 4.0+)

That's 7 out of 8 states that he has to turn in 26 days. Historically, states that carry a lead over 3.0+ by October 10th stay so until Election Day.

So; right now, not counting the toss-up states, Obama is leading 264 Electoral Votes versus McCain's 163. That's 6 electoral votes short of the magic number 270 for Obama.

If we include the toss-up states as they stand now, Obama has 364 Electoral Votes versus McCain's 174.

That is a change from the 301 Electoral Votes Obama had versus the 237 Electoral Votes McCain had on Sep 29th.