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11-12-2002, 04:49 PM | #1 |
Retired Ent
Join Date: Sep 1999
Posts: 60,631
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Box Office for TTT
How do you think TTT will do?
I predict around $65-70 million opening weekend (remember it opens Wednesday - FotR had a $47 mil opening weekend) with a total around $340 million. I hope it can somehow outdo Spider-Man, but that's not likely. It can probably beat Harry Potter this time around, though.
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11-12-2002, 05:07 PM | #2 |
Sapling
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 13
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I don't think it will do quite that well. Maybe $280-290 million in total.
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11-12-2002, 07:43 PM | #3 |
Fowl Administrator
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Calgary or Edmonton, Canada
Posts: 53,420
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I predict a significantly larger opening than FOTR, due to an expanded fan base from the first film (plus the Oscar nominations to boot). Also observe how the first film's performance wasn't opening-heavy, but was based on lasting power in the box office - virtually the same total domestic gross as Philosopher's Stone, but with half the opening gross. Besides, I've already got my opening night tickets.
As for figures themselves... well, I'd make a modest prediction about the opening Fri-Sun period, as the majority of the dedicated fan base will generally drift towards the Wednesday opening day. Given the first film's $19M opening Wednesday, this one should sit in the $25-30M range. Then we're looking at a $60-70M opening weekend. I would not count on Spider-Man figures, not by far. As for Harry Potter, it seems to be headed for another really "top-heavy" performance, with the majority of the audience coming out right away - i.e. organized school parties of kids and such. So as far as total gross goes, I expect TTT to out-perform Chamber of Secrets overall, but not with the opening. The $300M mark is a distinct possibility, and probably a given. Take into account though, that FOTR opened in a far less competitive market. I know that within a week of TTT I will be seeing Chicago, Gangs of New York and Catch Me If You Can, all early big-name Oscar-touted movies that have got my hype machine rolling.
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11-13-2002, 12:19 AM | #4 |
The Dude
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: at the altar of my ego
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No i think TTT can outdo spiderman... and it will definately out do HP...
Because with FotR i found that like star wars people went and saw it a few times at least... with TTT it is said to be a lot better than FotR and more people will be interested in the larger amount of violence and i think that the repeat viewers will go bigger
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11-13-2002, 07:18 AM | #5 |
Elven Warrior
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: the banks of the Royal Blue Mersey
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I think there will be an initial increase, but this will even off to about the same as fotr - im sure pj would be happy with that !
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11-13-2002, 07:47 AM | #6 |
The Original Corruptor
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 2,881
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My estimation is a $60m opening weekend, with a $310-320m overall domestic gross. TTT will never touch Spidey ($117m+- opening w/e, if I remember correctly).
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11-13-2002, 02:15 PM | #7 |
EIDRIORCQWSDAKLMED
DCWWTIWOATTOPWFIO Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Littleton, CO
Posts: 1,176
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I don't have a guess as to actual numbers, but IP's analysis seems sound.
I certainly think that Two Towers will outperform Fellowship, and Return will outdo both. I know I will be doing my bit again...
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"...[The Lord of the Rings] is to exemplify most clearly a recurrent theme: the place in 'world politics' of the unforeseen and unforeseeable acts of will, and deeds of virtue of the apparently small, ungreat, fogotten in the places of the Wise and Great (good as well as evil). A moral of the whole (after the primary symbolism of the Ring, as the will to mere power, seeking to make itself objective by physical force and mechanism, and so also inevitably by lies) is the obvious one that without the high and noble the simple and vulgar is utterly mean; and without the simple and ordinary the noble and heroic is meaningless." Letters of JRR Tolkien, page 160. |
11-13-2002, 08:12 PM | #8 |
the Shrike
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: San Francisco, CA <3
Posts: 10,647
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I hope Harry Potter does better.
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11-14-2002, 11:15 AM | #9 |
EIDRIORCQWSDAKLMED
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Location: Littleton, CO
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I think a certain Jackson-hating Kiwi sheila needs a kick in the beard......
[j/k, BoP!]
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"...[The Lord of the Rings] is to exemplify most clearly a recurrent theme: the place in 'world politics' of the unforeseen and unforeseeable acts of will, and deeds of virtue of the apparently small, ungreat, fogotten in the places of the Wise and Great (good as well as evil). A moral of the whole (after the primary symbolism of the Ring, as the will to mere power, seeking to make itself objective by physical force and mechanism, and so also inevitably by lies) is the obvious one that without the high and noble the simple and vulgar is utterly mean; and without the simple and ordinary the noble and heroic is meaningless." Letters of JRR Tolkien, page 160. |
11-14-2002, 03:07 PM | #10 |
The Original Corruptor
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 2,881
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Ouch!
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11-14-2002, 03:26 PM | #11 |
the Shrike
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: San Francisco, CA <3
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You're one to speak, you purist.
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"Binary solo! 0000001! 00000011! 0000001! 00000011!" ~ The Humans are Dead, Flight of the Conchords |
11-14-2002, 03:59 PM | #12 |
'Sober' Mullet Frosh
Join Date: Jan 2002
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It may outdo FOTR-a larger base, likely repeat viewings etc. ROTK doing the best? I'm not sure.
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11-14-2002, 04:14 PM | #13 |
The Original Corruptor
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 2,881
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Hmm.....can anyone say "ESB"?
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11-14-2002, 04:32 PM | #14 |
the greg the admin
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: NJ
Posts: 2,101
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ROTK will easily do best. The fan base will definately rise once again after TTT, and since it may also do better at the Oscars that FOTR, it might also make people want to see it.
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11-14-2002, 10:52 PM | #15 |
EIDRIORCQWSDAKLMED
DCWWTIWOATTOPWFIO Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Littleton, CO
Posts: 1,176
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I can SAY "ESB".......but I prefer to DRINK it!
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"...[The Lord of the Rings] is to exemplify most clearly a recurrent theme: the place in 'world politics' of the unforeseen and unforeseeable acts of will, and deeds of virtue of the apparently small, ungreat, fogotten in the places of the Wise and Great (good as well as evil). A moral of the whole (after the primary symbolism of the Ring, as the will to mere power, seeking to make itself objective by physical force and mechanism, and so also inevitably by lies) is the obvious one that without the high and noble the simple and vulgar is utterly mean; and without the simple and ordinary the noble and heroic is meaningless." Letters of JRR Tolkien, page 160. |
11-14-2002, 11:58 PM | #16 | |
Fowl Administrator
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Calgary or Edmonton, Canada
Posts: 53,420
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Quote:
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All of IronParrot's posts are guaranteed to be 100% intelligent and/or sarcastic, comprising no genetically modified content and tested on no cute furry little animals unless the SPCA is looking elsewhere. If you observe a failure to uphold this warranty, please contact a forum administrator immediately to receive a full refund on your Entmoot registration. Blog: Nick's Café Canadien |
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12-25-2002, 06:25 PM | #17 |
Retired Ent
Join Date: Sep 1999
Posts: 60,631
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Looks like we were right on target with that opening.
TTT just got the best non-holiday Monday ever, with an estimated $13.5 million. This coming weekend is always among the biggest of the year, and hopefully TTT won't have more than a 25% drop. So far everything is going well, but "Catch Me if You Can" might dethrone it (its reviews are very good).
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