Iraqi Elections

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Last Child of Ungoliant

in your opinion, one might hasten to add.

one might - but I wouldn't add that.

[Valandil]

Besides, this bein' Entmoot an' all... it would be hasty to 'hasten'!

Now... can we stick with Iraq?

[jerseydevil]

Originally Posted by Valandil

Now... can we stick with Iraq?

That sort of deals with Iraq. IN a round about way. I mean would you want me to just start a new thread for just that quote?

[Last Child of Ungoliant]

For any more OT ramblings on other nations!

[Lief Erikson]

I am certainly glad that the Sunnis are ending their boycot on the constitution. It's an excellent thing for Iraq.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/4713481.stm

[Insidious Rex]

Are they?

[Lief Erikson]

They were, and they've been involved in the process of creating the constitution. Now there's another jam, though, in that they're disagreeing with the Shias about the current text.

[The Gaffer]

*bump*

ye gods, what a mess.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/4192122.stm

[Lief Erikson]

Here's a piece of good news.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/4234122.stm

The insurgent casualties and the border closing are good signs, I think, even if they are merely short term successes.

[Lief Erikson]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4525474.stm
I'm quite happy right now about the improvements that are being made in Iraq. According to an Economist Intelligence Unit Survey, Iraq is the fourth most free country in the Middle East! In the recent Tal Afara attacks, Iraqis also showed a far more dominant position than usual in leading their security. Though many of their troops and police still require US backing to be effective, they are continually growing in numbers and training! I'm pleased that the insurgents have failed to break the spirit of the Iraqi people, and have failed to extinguish their thirst for freedom.

Now the Sunnis are becoming more and more involved, also . Millions turned out to vote about the constitution, and even more are expected to turn out for this election. So far, in spite of the fact that insurgents have been specifically targetting police recruits, Iraqis keep on signing up! They are eager to defend their country, and their participation is greatly aiding things in Iraq.

There are, of course, problems still with the economy (though there are successes there too, such as the establishment of a common currency throughout Iraq!), and there is a long road ahead. However, I'm very pleased about the overarching positive signs, such as the continued success of the Iraqis in meeting all the political deadlines the US sets for them, and their success in taking more and more control over the security of their country. The spirit of the police recruits and the spirit of common people who risk their lives at the polling booths is truly admirable, and in that spirit lies hope for a free, stable and secure Iraq.

[Nurvingiel]

Interesting article Lief. I'll be done exams and Iraqis go to the polls on the 15th. (I don't suppose there's any chance that women get to vote there..?) It certainly sounds like progress is being made.

I didn't know Iraq only just got a single currency. This also means it can be traded internationally. What currencies did they have before?

[The Gaffer]

Women can vote. What they can't do is go to work, turn on the lights or get water from the tap.

There are some positive signs, and the insurgency seems to be reducing somewhat. However, day to day, Iraq is still a much worse place to live than it was before the war and is currently the most lawless place on earth. So that's an odd concept of freedom. We haven't even managed to restore the power supply. People do not go out after dark.

[Nurvingiel]

Political empowerment is the first step towards other freedoms like being able to work. Obviously there are still problems with power, bands of insurgents, drinking water, and other concerns that I can't even begin to grasp. I can't imagine what it's like to be occupied by another country, or have violence in my own city.

[Lief Erikson]

Originally Posted by The Gaffer

Women can vote. What they can't do is go to work, turn on the lights or get water from the tap.

There are some positive signs, and the insurgency seems to be reducing somewhat. However, day to day, Iraq is still a much worse place to live than it was before the war and is currently the most lawless place on earth. So that's an odd concept of freedom. We haven't even managed to restore the power supply. People do not go out after dark.

It took us eight years to win the Revolutionary War. We've been in Iraq for two and a half. About two weeks into the war in Iraq, I saw on television Donald Rumsfeld forced to answer questions like, "Why is it taking so long? Are things not going as planned?" Most Americans expect instant satisfaction, and it's driving me nuts.

When you say people in Iraq can't work, drink running water or turn on lights, you're making rather broad generalizations. Some statistics would be appreciated.

But anyhow, I'm aware there are problems in parts of Iraq. We are fighting a war in Iraq, and usually wars involve both losses and successes. The Reconstruction efforts have been inhibited by continuing security turmoil. This is because we're at war. But overall, the continued successes in the Iraqi political process and the rising control they're taking over security, if they continue as they are now, make success in Iraq very likely.

[Insidious Rex]

Originally Posted by Lief Erikson

About two weeks into the war in Iraq, I saw on television Donald Rumsfeld forced to answer questions like, "Why is it taking so long? Are things not going as planned?" Most Americans expect instant satisfaction, and it's driving me nuts.

Well welcome to America the land of let them have their cake and eat it too. Its been a whole lot longer then two weeks now. I would expect these kinds of questions have now become more legitimate. I still dont see that potential civil war has been avoided. The Sunis and Shiites are killing each other now on a small scale but with more regularity. And the Kurds still want to be an island apart. All that cant be good. And still the majority of Iraqis believe they were better off before the invasion (on an infrastructure and security level) BUT they also are glad that Sadam is gone. So make what you will of that.

[The Gaffer]

I can understand people getting frustrated about reactions to the war in Iraq. I guess it would help if the president didn't pose about like a clown in front of banners saying "Mission Accomplished". Do you get the connection?

I get frustrated too. With the messianic desire of the neo-cons to appear to be on some sort of higher mission when they are really just lining their pockets.

When we compare where we are now with what people were saying before the start of the Iraq war, everything that the pro-war people predicted has been proved wrong, and everything that the anti-war people predicted has been proved right.

The only lasting positive I can see from it is that Saddam was pulled out of a hole in the ground and thrown in jail. That is a genuinely hopeful outcome.

EDIT: if you want statistics on power supplies etc you won't find any because, like civilian casualties, they are not being gathered. However, if you look for proper journalism you will find that daily life for ordinary people in Baghdad is a nightmare.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by Lief Erikson

It took us eight years to win the Revolutionary War. We've been in Iraq for two and a half. About two weeks into the war in Iraq, I saw on television Donald Rumsfeld forced to answer questions like, "Why is it taking so long? Are things not going as planned?" Most Americans expect instant satisfaction, and it's driving me nuts.

In this case I think a nuance is in order. You can't really blame people that they complain if they don't get what they were told to expect. When the war was being preached and threatened, I never heard anyone even discuss a long term war. Even high up the ranks of politicians the idea seemed prevalent that it was just "six month in Iraq and back out again, and everything would be peachy". The warnings that this war was going to be a 'bit' longer than expected only came in later.

[Lief Erikson]

I never heard any predictions about the length of time the reconstruction would take. I did hear predictions that the war against Saddam would be brief, and that prediction has been fully born out.

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

Its been a whole lot longer then two weeks now.

And a lot less than eight years. Our forebears were far stronger than many of us are now.

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

I would expect these kinds of questions have now become more legitimate. I still dont see that potential civil war has been avoided. The Sunis and Shiites are killing each other now on a small scale but with more regularity.

As the article I just provided a link to pointed out, the Sunnis are becoming more and more fully involved in the political process.

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

And the Kurds still want to be an island apart.

The Kurds willingly backed the new constitution of Iraq, even though it makes them a part of Iraq.

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

And still the majority of Iraqis believe they were better off before the invasion (on an infrastructure and security level) BUT they also are glad that Sadam is gone. So make what you will of that.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/4514414.stm
According to the survey this article cites, most Iraqis are optimistic about the future. 53% against 44% said they thought the situation for their country overall was bad right now, and there was a general lack of faith in the coalition forces. In spite of this, 69% said they were sure the situation of their country would improve rather than worsen. 71% said that in their personal lives, according to the survey, "things were going either very well or quite well."

Originally Posted by BBC News

The survey also shows that the foreign forces are not popular but that the Iraqi army and police are. This indicates support for the current US policy of trying to hand over to Iraqi forces and offering an Iraqi solution to the insurgency.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4527730.stm

Originally Posted by The Gaffer

When we compare where we are now with what people were saying before the start of the Iraq war, everything that the pro-war people predicted has been proved wrong, and everything that the anti-war people predicted has been proved right.

I heard predictions of doom for our invasion from certain Democrat generals, while I heard predictions of a quick victory against Saddam from the Administration. We beat Saddam absurdly easily. I'm quite sure that there have been correct and incorrect predictions from pro-war and anti-war people.

Originally Posted by The Gaffer

EDIT: if you want statistics on power supplies etc you won't find any because, like civilian casualties, they are not being gathered. However, if you look for proper journalism you will find that daily life for ordinary people in Baghdad is a nightmare.

In Baghdad, I'm sure that life is very hard. That city also seems to have been hit more frequently by the insurgents than any other in Iraq. There seems to have been a terrorist attack there almost every time I look at the news. Yet overall in Iraq, the reports are positive. The Sunnis have involved themselves in elections. A constitution has been accepted in the country. The political process is joining the Iraqis more and more fully together, and the security situation in Iraqi is improving. In spite of the fact that they are prime terrorist targets, the Iraqis have continued volunteering to enter the military and police forces. Their forces have been steadily and many times rapidly growing since Saddam lost power. 71% of Iraqis say life is good. These are all positive signs, and the situation, politically and militarily (as the Iraqi police and military constantly is growing) is improving.

[Nurvingiel]

About the BBC survey Lief, I very much doubt their sampling techniques. I'm not taking a jab at the BBC, it's just that there are very few journalists venturing outside and doing any real journalism.

This opinion is mostly derived from the latest issue of the Utne Reader which confirmed a growing suspicion I had about journalism in Iraq. According to the Utne reader, most stories you read about Iraq are based on phone conversations with soldiers. If someone is too afraid of violence to go outside, that is the news. You can't get your research second-hand and call it thourough journalism. I don't blame anyone for being afraid, but report the right news hear! It's not a journalists job to be fed the news from an outside source.
[/rantage]

There is probably a strong bias in that survey for Iraqis who live in the Green Zone, or for people who generally weren't afraid to approach a random person and do a survey. I think if someone is arsed to do the survey, in this case, life must be alright for them and thus the findings are skewed.

[Lief Erikson]

Well, my response to that would be that Oxford is a very liberal place, largely anti-war. The bias of an Oxford Research International poll would be anti-war rather than pro-war. Finding this poll accepted on BBC News, a very liberal paper which tried to shroud the numbers with statements like "our correspondent adds that the survey proves little beyond showing how resilient Iraqis are at a local level - and that it reveals enough important exceptions to the rosy assessment, especially in the centre of the country, to indicate serious dissatisfaction." And other statements of personal opinion and argument such as:

Originally Posted by BBC News

And yet opinion polls and official figures do not always give the whole picture.

I used to go to one country in Central America, El Salvador, in the 1980s. It had a strong currency, low inflation, full employment, a balance of payments surplus etc - and it was in the middle of a civil war.

It, too, had what was regarded as a successful election in 1982, when people queued up for hours to vote and guerrillas failed to stop them. A guerrilla attack on the capital San Salvador from a nearby volcano was beaten back and a guerrilla ambush on fuel tankers on the Pan American highway was seen off.


The civil war went on for another 10 years.

That BBC News accepts the validity of these figures says something to me. BBC News is consistantly liberal and seeks relentlessly to stir up a fight, in my experience of having read through the international part of the website almost daily, for about a year. Toward President Bush and conservative church or political leaders, there is always a twist of phrase here or there which scorns them. Often one side of an argument will be raised, without showing the other side. The condemnation of Pat Robertson would be one example. BBC News argued that he had a history of making controversial statements, without mentioning that he also had a history of extreme altruism and mercy, and without showing the full context or reasons for his opinions about Chavez. And beyond the anti-conservative stories on BBC, one might also mention the photos. I don't think I've ever seen a good photo of Bush or any of his main leaders on BBC. They always are caught at a slightly bad angle, whereas on most other sites I've gone to, there are fine pictures available. This is the case, in spite of the fact that BBC seems capable of taking excellent pictures of people all the time, when it does a series of interviews with people in various countries.

I haven't been keeping links to all the anti-conservative statements in BBC, so I can't cite much evidence to back my experience. However, I'm sure I could get some for you soon. New articles show up on BBC every day .

So because of the likelihood of a liberal slant to this survey, plus the fact that they are a very professional group, the fact that positive numbers have come up makes me consider them to be trustworthy.

Originally Posted by BBC News

The poll by Oxford Research International was commissioned by the BBC, ABC News and other international media organisations, and released ahead of this week's parliamentary elections in Iraq.

This is a very professional collection of newspapers, not a few random, terrified free-lance journalists.