Who do you think should be elected in 2008?

[Coffeehouse]

How is the Electoral College map looking now, as opposed to on the 29th of September?

There are some changes, and they are all uniformly in favour of Obama.

State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio (20) 48.9 44.9 Obama +4.0 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Florida (27) 48.3 45.3 Obama +3.0 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1
Nevada (5) 49.6 46.6 Obama +3.0 Toss Up Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5
North Carolina (15) 48.2 47.6 Obama +0.6 Toss Up Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8
Missouri (11) 47.8 47.5 Obama +0.3 Toss Up Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3
Indiana (11) 46.0 48.5 McCain +2.5 Toss Up Bush +20.7 Bush +15.7
Virginia (13) 49.9 45.1 Obama +4.8 Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
Colorado (9) 49.3 45.3 Obama +4.0 Toss Up Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4

Wisconsin (10) 51.0 43.0 Obama +8.0 Leaning Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2
Michigan (17) 49.1 42.1 Obama +7.0 Leaning Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2
New Mexico (5) 49.8 42.5 Obama +7.3 Leaning Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1
Washington (11) 49.8 41.8 Obama +8.0 Leaning Kerry +8.2 Gore +5.5
Georgia (15) 44.0 51.5 McCain +7.5 Leaning Bush +16.6 Bush +11.7
New Jersey (15) 50.8 40.2 Obama +10.6 Solid Kerry +6.7 Gore +15.8
Oregon (7) 49.8 40.8 Obama +9.0 Solid Kerry +4.2 Gore +0.5
Iowa (7) 51.3 41.8 Obama +9.5 Solid Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3
Pennsylvania (21) 51.6 39.2 Obama +12.4 Solid Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2
Minnesota (10) 52.2 42.4 Obama +9.8 Solid Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4
New Hampshire (4) 52.0 41.3 Obama +10.7 Solid Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3

On Sep 29th the state of Ohio was slightly in favour of McCain, at 1.2+ percentage points in his favour. But now it's tilted heavily in Obama's favour, at 4.0+ percentages points in his favour. That's quite a shift and something that should worry McCain.

The state of Florida tilted 1.6+ percentage points in McCains favour. That was the 29th of Sep. But now it is 3.0+ percentage points in Obama's favour, quite the change in a state that is seen as a must-win for McCain.

The changes are similar all across the battleground states. Nevada has turned from favouring McCain to a slight edge for Obama.

The most worrying signs for McCain is that New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all have gone from a slight lead for Obama to a solid lead for Obama.
Sep 29: October 9:
New Hamp: Obama 1.3+ Obama 10.7+
Minnesota: Obama 2.8+ Obama 9.8+
Wisconsin: Obama 3.8+ Obama 8.0+
Pennsyl.: Obama 4.8+ Obama 12.4+

Of the 8 states that are currently toss up, McCain must win all of them.
And he is only leading in one, Indiana.
The rest he is trailing: Ohio (Obama 4.0+), Florida (Obama 3.0+), Nevada (Obama 3.0+), North Carolina (Obama 0.6+), Missouri (Obama 0.3+), Virginia (Obama 4.8+) and Colorado (Obama 4.0+)

That's 7 out of 8 states that he has to turn in 26 days. Historically, states that carry a lead over 3.0+ by October 10th stay so until Election Day.

So; right now, not counting the toss-up states, Obama is leading 264 Electoral Votes versus McCain's 163. That's 6 electoral votes short of the magic number 270 for Obama.

If we include the toss-up states as they stand now, Obama has 364 Electoral Votes versus McCain's 174.

That is a change from the 301 Electoral Votes Obama had versus the 237 Electoral Votes McCain had on Sep 29th.

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Look, Coffeehouse. For you, this is another fun debate. For me, it's really important, and a lot of work. It's expensive. It takes time away from my hobbies, and my loved ones, and it takes energy. I'm really superstitious about it. If I told you my experiences during the contested election, you'd think I was a darn liar.

We still need to win every vote, and we still need to get MILLIONS of brand new voters to the polls. They'll be intimidated and their votes will be outright stolen. And that's besides the lunatics that are yelling "KILL OBAMA" at the rallies, particularly Palin's rallies. And, just like she laughed at the cancer survivor who opposed her politically, she laughs at it.

Ever seen the pictures of Bobby Kennedy?

[Coffeehouse]

This is just another fun debate for me?

[Nurvingiel]

I hope that it's fun, or at least rewarding, for everyone in this thread. It would be a shame if people spent a lot of effort in something they have no fun with at all (not that I'd stop you ).

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Nurv, I expect you to be watching that Teacup like a harris hawk. Only yourself to blame if you're not here when the bell rings. /commercial

[Coffeehouse]

Originally Posted by sisterandcousinandaunt

Look, Coffeehouse. For you, this is another fun debate.

Why do you write this?

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by Coffeehouse

Why do you write this?

Sorry, buddy. End of the day, and I'm injured.

I just couldn't do another "who takes Ohio." thing. I apologise if I was out of line. For me, it's not "what are the odds", it's "There's no room for failure." But I didn't mean to stifle debate.

just tired...........

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Link about possible problems.

http://www.9news.com/news/article.as...1462&catid=222

[BeardofPants]

Nobody rests on their laurels until Obama gets in!! >_<

[HOBBIT]

The election is in a couple days - I can't believe that this topic has been dead for weeks. I voted last week in NC.

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Good for you, Hobbit!

It's been dead because we're making phone calls, if anyone has any sense.

But I was looking for it today, because this cracked me up.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...0,894702.story

"Quick learner", my ass. This girl has ROYALLY p'd off almost every possible R who watches sports in the state of Pennsylvania.

[GrayMouser]

Originally Posted by HOBBIT

The election is in a couple days - I can't believe that this topic has been dead for weeks. I voted last week in NC.

Well, the Republican supporters have been quiet for obvious reasons, and the Obama supporters are terrified to post for fear of getting stomped on by sisterandcousinandaunt

[GrayMouser]

Originally Posted by sisterandcousinandaunt

Good for you, Hobbit!

It's been dead because we're making phone calls, if anyone has any sense.

But I was looking for it today, because this cracked me up.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...0,894702.story

"Quick learner", my ass. This girl has ROYALLY p'd off almost every possible R who watches sports in the state of Pennsylvania.

Really- that's what candidates have advance people for, to check out the local situations.

Of course it does get over the top- remember Kerry getting slammed for ordering the wrong topping on his Philly cheesesteak?

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by GrayMouser

Well, the Republican supporters have been quiet for obvious reasons, and the Obama supporters are terrified to post for fear of getting stomped on by sisterandcousinandaunt

I haven't stomped anyone. Urged them to get to the polls, occasionally.

Originally Posted by GrayMouser

Really- that's what candidates have advance people for, to check out the local situations.

Of course it does get over the top- remember Kerry getting slammed for ordering the wrong topping on his Philly cheesesteak?

Not over the top at all, in Philly. It's a religion.

[Insidious Rex]

Oh I think she can be forgiven for such a stupid gaff. I mean after all Philly territory does border up against Pittsburgh territory just like Alaskans and Russians have so much in common!

[Willow Oran]

Did you all hear about the guys who prank called her? She carried on a phone conversation for about six minutes with this guy pretending to be the President of France.

[The last sane person]

That was just so awesome. It rocked!

[Nurvingiel]

The crank callers were from a Montreal radio station.

If only Sarah Palin had noticed they used a made up name for our Prime Minister and that he mentioned a Prime Minister of Quebec, she might have caught on.


Being a Republican supporter isn't so bad with John McCain as your candidate. I don't agree with a lot of his policies, but he's a good guy, and really funny (Al Smith dinner!). I think Obama would be a better President, but you have to admit John McCain is an enormous step away from the useless guy the Republicans are stuck with now (I'm firmly convinced that George W. will go down in history as the worst President ever, and will hold that title for a long time).

[Gwaimir Windgem]

John McCain is not a good guy. Dumping your wife for a 20-years-younger mistress is not a "good guy" thing to do. However, his policies are markedly better than average for a Republican.

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by Nurvingiel

The crank callers were from a Montreal radio station.

If only Sarah Palin had noticed they used a made up name for our Prime Minister and that he mentioned a Prime Minister of Quebec, she might have caught on.


Being a Republican supporter isn't so bad with John McCain as your candidate. I don't agree with a lot of his policies, but he's a good guy, and really funny (Al Smith dinner!). I think Obama would be a better President, but you have to admit John McCain is an enormous step away from the useless guy the Republicans are stuck with now (I'm firmly convinced that George W. will go down in history as the worst President ever, and will hold that title for a long time).

No, I don't think so. First, they don't write their own jokes for that dinner. Second, George W. has been a seriously indifferent president, and I can't wait to be rid of him. But worst? I'm sad to admit, probably not.

Sarah Palin is from Alaska. She's as close to Canada as to Russia, right? But she's a complete idiot, that's the problem. The radio guys say she ranked up with Brittany Spears as gullible.

Originally Posted by Gwaimir Windgem

John McCain is not a good guy. Dumping your wife for a 20-years-younger mistress is not a "good guy" thing to do. However, his policies are markedly better than average for a Republican.

Yes on A, no on B. His policies are, and always have been, opportunistic.