10-08-2008, 08:42 PM | #861 |
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How is the Electoral College map looking now, as opposed to on the 29th of September?
There are some changes, and they are all uniformly in favour of Obama. State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------- Ohio (20) 48.9 44.9 Obama +4.0 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5 Florida (27) 48.3 45.3 Obama +3.0 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1 Nevada (5) 49.6 46.6 Obama +3.0 Toss Up Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5 North Carolina (15) 48.2 47.6 Obama +0.6 Toss Up Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8 Missouri (11) 47.8 47.5 Obama +0.3 Toss Up Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3 Indiana (11) 46.0 48.5 McCain +2.5 Toss Up Bush +20.7 Bush +15.7 Virginia (13) 49.9 45.1 Obama +4.8 Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1 Colorado (9) 49.3 45.3 Obama +4.0 Toss Up Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4 Wisconsin (10) 51.0 43.0 Obama +8.0 Leaning Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2 Michigan (17) 49.1 42.1 Obama +7.0 Leaning Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2 New Mexico (5) 49.8 42.5 Obama +7.3 Leaning Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1 Washington (11) 49.8 41.8 Obama +8.0 Leaning Kerry +8.2 Gore +5.5 Georgia (15) 44.0 51.5 McCain +7.5 Leaning Bush +16.6 Bush +11.7 New Jersey (15) 50.8 40.2 Obama +10.6 Solid Kerry +6.7 Gore +15.8 Oregon (7) 49.8 40.8 Obama +9.0 Solid Kerry +4.2 Gore +0.5 Iowa (7) 51.3 41.8 Obama +9.5 Solid Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3 Pennsylvania (21) 51.6 39.2 Obama +12.4 Solid Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2 Minnesota (10) 52.2 42.4 Obama +9.8 Solid Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4 New Hampshire (4) 52.0 41.3 Obama +10.7 Solid Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3 On Sep 29th the state of Ohio was slightly in favour of McCain, at 1.2+ percentage points in his favour. But now it's tilted heavily in Obama's favour, at 4.0+ percentages points in his favour. That's quite a shift and something that should worry McCain. The state of Florida tilted 1.6+ percentage points in McCains favour. That was the 29th of Sep. But now it is 3.0+ percentage points in Obama's favour, quite the change in a state that is seen as a must-win for McCain. The changes are similar all across the battleground states. Nevada has turned from favouring McCain to a slight edge for Obama. The most worrying signs for McCain is that New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all have gone from a slight lead for Obama to a solid lead for Obama. Sep 29: October 9: New Hamp: Obama 1.3+ Obama 10.7+ Minnesota: Obama 2.8+ Obama 9.8+ Wisconsin: Obama 3.8+ Obama 8.0+ Pennsyl.: Obama 4.8+ Obama 12.4+ Of the 8 states that are currently toss up, McCain must win all of them. And he is only leading in one, Indiana. The rest he is trailing: Ohio (Obama 4.0+), Florida (Obama 3.0+), Nevada (Obama 3.0+), North Carolina (Obama 0.6+), Missouri (Obama 0.3+), Virginia (Obama 4.8+) and Colorado (Obama 4.0+) That's 7 out of 8 states that he has to turn in 26 days. Historically, states that carry a lead over 3.0+ by October 10th stay so until Election Day. So; right now, not counting the toss-up states, Obama is leading 264 Electoral Votes versus McCain's 163. That's 6 electoral votes short of the magic number 270 for Obama. If we include the toss-up states as they stand now, Obama has 364 Electoral Votes versus McCain's 174. That is a change from the 301 Electoral Votes Obama had versus the 237 Electoral Votes McCain had on Sep 29th.
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10-08-2008, 08:55 PM | #862 |
Elf Lord
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Look, Coffeehouse. For you, this is another fun debate. For me, it's really important, and a lot of work. It's expensive. It takes time away from my hobbies, and my loved ones, and it takes energy. I'm really superstitious about it. If I told you my experiences during the contested election, you'd think I was a darn liar.
We still need to win every vote, and we still need to get MILLIONS of brand new voters to the polls. They'll be intimidated and their votes will be outright stolen. And that's besides the lunatics that are yelling "KILL OBAMA" at the rallies, particularly Palin's rallies. And, just like she laughed at the cancer survivor who opposed her politically, she laughs at it. Ever seen the pictures of Bobby Kennedy?
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That would be the swirling vortex to another world. Cool. I want one. TMNT No, I'm not emo. I just have a really poor sense of direction. (Thanks to katya for this quote) This is the best news story EVER! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087293/ “Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint.”...John McCain "I shall go back. And I shall find that therapist. And I shall whack her upside her head with my blanket full of rocks." ...Louisa May |
10-08-2008, 09:00 PM | #863 |
Entmoot Minister of Foreign Affairs
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This is just another fun debate for me?
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"Well, thief! I smell you and I feel your air. I hear your breath. Come along! Help yourself again, there is plenty and to spare." |
10-08-2008, 10:09 PM | #864 | ||
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I hope that it's fun, or at least rewarding, for everyone in this thread. It would be a shame if people spent a lot of effort in something they have no fun with at all (not that I'd stop you ).
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"I can add some more, if you'd like it. Calling your Chief Names, Wishing to Punch his Pimply Face, and Thinking you Shirriffs look a lot of Tom-fools." - Sam Gamgee, p. 340, Return of the King Quote:
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10-08-2008, 10:42 PM | #865 |
Elf Lord
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Nurv, I expect you to be watching that Teacup like a harris hawk. Only yourself to blame if you're not here when the bell rings. /commercial
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That would be the swirling vortex to another world. Cool. I want one. TMNT No, I'm not emo. I just have a really poor sense of direction. (Thanks to katya for this quote) This is the best news story EVER! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087293/ “Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint.”...John McCain "I shall go back. And I shall find that therapist. And I shall whack her upside her head with my blanket full of rocks." ...Louisa May |
10-08-2008, 10:50 PM | #866 |
Entmoot Minister of Foreign Affairs
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Why do you write this?
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"Well, thief! I smell you and I feel your air. I hear your breath. Come along! Help yourself again, there is plenty and to spare." |
10-08-2008, 11:33 PM | #867 |
Elf Lord
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Sorry, buddy. End of the day, and I'm injured.
I just couldn't do another "who takes Ohio." thing. I apologise if I was out of line. For me, it's not "what are the odds", it's "There's no room for failure." But I didn't mean to stifle debate. just tired...........
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That would be the swirling vortex to another world. Cool. I want one. TMNT No, I'm not emo. I just have a really poor sense of direction. (Thanks to katya for this quote) This is the best news story EVER! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087293/ “Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint.”...John McCain "I shall go back. And I shall find that therapist. And I shall whack her upside her head with my blanket full of rocks." ...Louisa May |
10-09-2008, 10:14 AM | #868 |
Elf Lord
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That would be the swirling vortex to another world. Cool. I want one. TMNT No, I'm not emo. I just have a really poor sense of direction. (Thanks to katya for this quote) This is the best news story EVER! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087293/ “Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint.”...John McCain "I shall go back. And I shall find that therapist. And I shall whack her upside her head with my blanket full of rocks." ...Louisa May |
10-09-2008, 02:46 PM | #869 |
the Shrike
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Nobody rests on their laurels until Obama gets in!! >_<
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11-02-2008, 02:40 AM | #870 |
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The election is in a couple days - I can't believe that this topic has been dead for weeks. I voted last week in NC.
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11-02-2008, 10:13 AM | #871 |
Elf Lord
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Good for you, Hobbit!
It's been dead because we're making phone calls, if anyone has any sense. But I was looking for it today, because this cracked me up. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...0,894702.story "Quick learner", my ass. This girl has ROYALLY p'd off almost every possible R who watches sports in the state of Pennsylvania.
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That would be the swirling vortex to another world. Cool. I want one. TMNT No, I'm not emo. I just have a really poor sense of direction. (Thanks to katya for this quote) This is the best news story EVER! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087293/ “Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint.”...John McCain "I shall go back. And I shall find that therapist. And I shall whack her upside her head with my blanket full of rocks." ...Louisa May |
11-02-2008, 12:04 PM | #872 |
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Well, the Republican supporters have been quiet for obvious reasons, and the Obama supporters are terrified to post for fear of getting stomped on by sisterandcousinandaunt
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Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep. Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come when you do call for them? "I like pigs. Dogs look up to us, cats look down on us, but pigs treat us as equals."- Winston Churchill Last edited by GrayMouser : 11-02-2008 at 12:09 PM. |
11-02-2008, 12:08 PM | #873 | |
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Quote:
Of course it does get over the top- remember Kerry getting slammed for ordering the wrong topping on his Philly cheesesteak?
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Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep. Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come when you do call for them? "I like pigs. Dogs look up to us, cats look down on us, but pigs treat us as equals."- Winston Churchill |
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11-02-2008, 01:09 PM | #874 | |
Elf Lord
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Quote:
Not over the top at all, in Philly. It's a religion.
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That would be the swirling vortex to another world. Cool. I want one. TMNT No, I'm not emo. I just have a really poor sense of direction. (Thanks to katya for this quote) This is the best news story EVER! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087293/ “Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint.”...John McCain "I shall go back. And I shall find that therapist. And I shall whack her upside her head with my blanket full of rocks." ...Louisa May |
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11-03-2008, 02:21 PM | #875 |
Quasi Evil
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Oh I think she can be forgiven for such a stupid gaff. I mean after all Philly territory does border up against Pittsburgh territory just like Alaskans and Russians have so much in common!
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"People's political beliefs don't stem from the factual information they've acquired. Far more the facts people choose to believe are the product of their political beliefs." "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." |
11-03-2008, 03:53 PM | #876 |
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Did you all hear about the guys who prank called her? She carried on a phone conversation for about six minutes with this guy pretending to be the President of France.
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"5. Plain Rings with RUNES on the inside. Avoid these like the PLAGUE.-Diana Wynne Jones Tough Guide To FantasyLand ...it's not much of a show if somebody doesn't suffer, and preferably at length. Suffering is beautiful in any case, and so is anguish; but as for loathing, and bitterness... I don't think they belong on the stage at all. - Isabella, I Gelosi |
11-03-2008, 07:33 PM | #877 |
The Black Númenórean
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That was just so awesome. It rocked!
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Your children are not your children. They are the sons and daughters of Life's longing for itself. They come through you but not from you, And though they are with you yet they belong not to you. You may give them your love but not your thoughts, For they have their own thoughts. You may house their bodies but not their souls, For their souls dwell in the house of tomorrow, which you cannot visit, not even in your dreams. |
11-03-2008, 09:08 PM | #878 | ||
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The crank callers were from a Montreal radio station.
If only Sarah Palin had noticed they used a made up name for our Prime Minister and that he mentioned a Prime Minister of Quebec, she might have caught on. Being a Republican supporter isn't so bad with John McCain as your candidate. I don't agree with a lot of his policies, but he's a good guy, and really funny (Al Smith dinner!). I think Obama would be a better President, but you have to admit John McCain is an enormous step away from the useless guy the Republicans are stuck with now (I'm firmly convinced that George W. will go down in history as the worst President ever, and will hold that title for a long time).
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"I can add some more, if you'd like it. Calling your Chief Names, Wishing to Punch his Pimply Face, and Thinking you Shirriffs look a lot of Tom-fools." - Sam Gamgee, p. 340, Return of the King Quote:
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11-03-2008, 09:27 PM | #879 |
Dread Mothy Lord and Halfwitted Apprentice Loremaster
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John McCain is not a good guy. Dumping your wife for a 20-years-younger mistress is not a "good guy" thing to do. However, his policies are markedly better than average for a Republican.
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11-03-2008, 09:39 PM | #880 | |
Elf Lord
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Quote:
Sarah Palin is from Alaska. She's as close to Canada as to Russia, right? But she's a complete idiot, that's the problem. The radio guys say she ranked up with Brittany Spears as gullible. Yes on A, no on B. His policies are, and always have been, opportunistic.
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That would be the swirling vortex to another world. Cool. I want one. TMNT No, I'm not emo. I just have a really poor sense of direction. (Thanks to katya for this quote) This is the best news story EVER! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087293/ “Often my haste is a mistake, but I live with the consequences without complaint.”...John McCain "I shall go back. And I shall find that therapist. And I shall whack her upside her head with my blanket full of rocks." ...Louisa May |
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