North Korea to Give Up Nuclear Aims

[Spock]

If you read the change of message, each day almost, N. Korea is doing what it wants just as much as Iran. Our policy hasn't worked in either case.
It's a case of "too little, too late".

[hectorberlioz]

*sigh* I suppose you're right...

What we should do is take over France before the muslims do. I mean, if they don't want their country, hey; we'll take it ...we can probably use minimal force too. ....I'm kidding, I'm kidding

[Spock]

Actually, IMO, we should just expand Euro Disney and then put in some nice shops....make the whole country a shopping area, except for the Southern part, where we can import sand and move all the muslims there .....

[Nurvingiel]

I think China's position in the matter is interesting. They are North Korea's only allies, but they are pretty choked about the nuclear test. North Korea has put them in an awkward position. I think that pressure from them is the best chance of getting North Korea to halt any future tests.

[Lief Erikson]

Originally Posted by Nurvingiel

I think China's position in the matter is interesting. They are North Korea's only allies, but they are pretty choked about the nuclear test. North Korea has put them in an awkward position. I think that pressure from them is the best chance of getting North Korea to halt any future tests.

Agreed.

I'm now coming to the view that Kim Jong Il wants war. He wants to conquer South Korea and use this massive military machine he's been building up. He hasn't been building that military for no reason- he wants to use it.

And the only way I can see of preventing him is to convince China to use its influence with North Korea in a decisive way to keep war from breaking out. I want China to tell North Korea in secret negotiations that they'll break off aid to North Korea if North Korea starts a war. That would allow the North to avoid the problem of publicly losing face, and might defuse the situation.

[hectorberlioz]

Hey, if we can co0nvince China to smooth out N.Korea, there might be a chance we can convince them to help us smooth out Iran.

[Insidious Rex]

Originally Posted by Lief Erikson

I'm now coming to the view that Kim Jong Il wants war. He wants to conquer South Korea and use this massive military machine he's been building up. He hasn't been building that military for no reason- he wants to use it.

Now how can you be so sure of this exactly? It makes less sense then the theory that hes just paranoid and power hungry and figures if he isnt armed to the teeth that the powers that be will walk over him and North Korea. Surely he knows if he invades South Korea or heaven forbid drops a bomb ANYWHERE on ANYONE that hes absolutely guaranteed of losing power. So I have my doubts this is just about wanting to fight a war. I think its more about paranoid escalation and mistrust with a little bit of wanting to be respected as a big dog thrown in there.

[hectorberlioz]

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

Now how can you be so sure of this exactly? It makes less sense then the theory that hes just paranoid and power hungry and figures if he isnt armed to the teeth that the powers that be will walk over him and North Korea. Surely he knows if he invades South Korea or heaven forbid drops a bomb ANYWHERE on ANYONE that hes absolutely guaranteed of losing power. So I have my doubts this is just about wanting to fight a war. I think its more about paranoid escalation and mistrust with a little bit of wanting to be respected as a big dog thrown in there.

I'd say you're right...to a certain extent. However, he might feel the wind blowing in his favor with us tied up with the Middle-east...

[Lief Erikson]

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

Now how can you be so sure of this exactly? It makes less sense then the theory that hes just paranoid and power hungry and figures if he isnt armed to the teeth that the powers that be will walk over him and North Korea. Surely he knows if he invades South Korea or heaven forbid drops a bomb ANYWHERE on ANYONE that hes absolutely guaranteed of losing power. So I have my doubts this is just about wanting to fight a war. I think its more about paranoid escalation and mistrust with a little bit of wanting to be respected as a big dog thrown in there.

Originally Posted by CNN

North Korea said any participation by South Korea in U.S.-led sanctions would be seen as a serious provocation leading to a "crisis of war" on the Korean peninsula.

North Korea's most recent actions are outright warlike. The country is taking the most provocative steps it can. Being respected as a "big dog," doesn't make sense as a goal either, as all they've achieved is getting the entire world condemning them.

This has gotten beyond saber-rattling. They've also claimed US efforts to get sanctions passed are a "declaration of war" from us, in spite of the fact that we've said we'll never attack North Korea. They're setting up their justifications for a war they've always wanted.

As for knowing that dropping a bomb on anyone will mean certain doom for North Korea, I agree that that's the case, but I don't think any of North Korea's recent actions make sense. Perhaps, like Hitler thought of Europe and Ahmadinejad thinks of the West, he thinks we won't have the nerve to get engaged in a ferocious war against North Korea. The North's military is very powerful and the casualties it would take are huge.

Or perhaps, like Hector suggests, they think we're stretched too thin in Iraq and so can risk our getting involved.

But the North has sucked their country to the bone to build their powerful military machine. You don't put everything you have into military and then refrain from using it.

And you ask, "how can you be so sure?" Well, I'm not sure. But you shouldn't be sure of your view either- neither of us has proof, though each may have evidence interpreted in different ways, and each of us can only give his best guess as to what's going on in Kim Jong Il's mind.

[Insidious Rex]

Granted but you have to ask yourself what does he gain from starting a war with us or South Korea? Almost certain death in the end. At best loss of power and detention for the rest of his life. He knows he cant possibly win a war of that scale. He knows it would most likely mean cataclysmic loss of life on both sides. So couldnt these silly "acts of war" declarations be a pathetic attempt to thump his chest and seem menacing like a cat backed into a corner? And like most displays in nature its probably all hot air and bluff designed to scare us from assuming they will just roll over and obey us. Of course who knows how deep any pathology obscuring sound reason is playing in this affair.

[Lief Erikson]

Originally Posted by Insidious Rex

So couldnt these silly "acts of war" declarations be a pathetic attempt to thump his chest and seem menacing like a cat backed into a corner?

Of course they could be. As I said, I don't know what Kim Jong Il is thinking. This is my best guess.

North Korea has walked into this corner with its eyes open. They knew what the reaction to their nuclear test would be, and were aware that even China was against it. They are purposefully intensifying the crisis and raising the stakes, in my view seeking to establish justification for any military action they might choose to take, so that their soldiers will fight against the supposed aggressors with clean consciences.

Anyway, there isn't any way for us to yet be sure as to what they want. Your view is optimistic and I hope you're right. I fear that we will soon discover otherwise, however.

[Valaru]

Two things,

1) Kim Il Jong is, I think, a little nuts. Delusions of granduer etc.

2) He can make these assertations, that the US is declaring war because no one can really do anything about it, if he is attacked he can nuke either south Korea or China easily, and that area of China near North Korea is still doing business with North Korea.

[Lief Erikson]

He's on good relations with China; there won't be any nuclear weapons thrown there. But he might fire them at Japan or South Korea.

[Mari]

We covered this subject in college. What you all seem to be forgetting is that in N-Korean eyes, it's them against the world. They are surrounded by enemies: China, South-Korea, Japan and a little further America. I also mention China, because China isn't a "pure" communist anymore.
At the time of the first great leader, it was like that and these feelings of being the victim, and of them against the big bad world, have been drilled into the people of N-Korea. In this time, the nuclear threat was very effectively used to get consessions, loans and aid from the world.

Off course, the situation has changed a bit: the great first leader died and now his son is trying his best to outdo his old man who is considered to be a god. Difficult task. N-Korea is in need of aid, but how do you ask your enemies for aid while trying to be a great leader AND considering the sentiment of the people that has been drilled to hate every other country AND not withstanding the fact that your country has very little to offer in return. Right, you don't. But there is one method that has always been effective in the past: threaten with nuclear weapons. So that is the path the new great leader chose. And by playing with big countries and getting away with it, his status in N-Korea will hold. The people are drilled to such an extent that they gladly give up their own food if that means that their great leader can make a statement to all those big meanies out there.

What I am trying to say is that I believe there is more to it, then to the leader (I'm sorry, I am absolutely terrible with names) being a powercraving maniac, or whatever he may be called. I know it is easy to condemn him and it is also easy to condemn the N-Koreans as being stupid or deluded or indoctrinated, but if your entire life you have been led to believe that all other countries are your enemies, wouldn't you look at aid with suspicion?

I don't know if N-Korea will go to war, but if they do, it will not be with the intention to be the last one standing. IF a war should start, then I think N-Korea will go down while trying to take as many with them as possible.

On a whole different note: as I understand it, Japan has quite some financial interests in N-Korea and lately, their political intercourse has been going rather well.

[Jonathan]

You're quite right Mari. It is always easy for people to oversimplify and explain rogue nations' behaviour by blaming it all on the dictator's alleged insanity or malevolence. Though these characteristics don't necessarily need to be entirely untrue, there is always more to it than just that.

[sisterandcousinandaunt]

Originally Posted by Lief Erikson

You don't put everything you have into military and then refrain from using it.

is what people say about Israel.

And sometimes the US.

[Lief Erikson]

A very interesting point of view, Mari. There is one part of it I'd like to see you back with sources, though, if you can.

Originally Posted by Mari

The people are drilled to such an extent that they gladly give up their own food if that means that their great leader can make a statement to all those big meanies out there.

I need to see evidence for this. I suspect it may be true of their troops, and I know there's a big propaganda machine in North Korea run by the government, but I don't know that this kind of position is the overall perspective of the general population. Could you confirm that for me?

[Mari]

Originally Posted by Lief Erikson

A very interesting point of view, Mari. There is one part of it I'd like to see you back with sources, though, if you can.

I need to see evidence for this. I suspect it may be true of their troops, and I know there's a big propaganda machine in North Korea run by the government, but I don't know that this kind of position is the overall perspective of the general population. Could you confirm that for me?

Nope, I can't
I know these things you refer to from the occasional documentaries they show on television where they have interviews with poor country folks starving to death, telling how proud they are of their sons who joined the army and how they would do everything for their country. Actually I do specifically remember one such interview in which a very old man almost without teeth, looking like a living skeleton said that it didn't matter that he had no food, because (leaders name) would take care of him and would remember his suffering for the country. I also remember on what occasion they showed that interview: 1 of the 2 Dutch people who filmed this interview was arrested. Can't remember if he ever got free though. I was pretty shocked when I saw this and the film of the arrest of the man (lot of blood and I can't stand blood, which is probably why I remember it so clearly)
The rest I pretty much got from my class and some occasional references to the North-Korean situation in my books.
Sorry I can't be more specific.

[Lief Erikson]

That's a very scary level of blindness, shown by those North Koreans you saw on the documentary.

[Jonathan]

Is it blindness when the government decides what people should see?