Global Warming Debate - Page 23

Count Comfect · 12-06-2009, 12:19 AM

Unfortunately, given the precedent of Kyoto, I'm going to go with "toothless." But I can still have hope that eventually there will be actual compliance with the goals we set. Unfortunately, this is exactly the sort of situation in which goals have to be set beyond a single administration in any country, no matter how long their terms may be, and it is precisely that sort of policy that has the hardest time being met in the majority of democratic systems in the world today.

***Jonathan*** · 12-06-2009, 04:50 AM

I agree that such long-term regulations are indeed troublesome. Kyoto lacks a mechanism to ensure adherence to the goals and I believe this new treaty will also be drawn up without some kind of penalty for countries that don't comply (of which there are several).

Trade sanctions, or rather the threat thereof, is one of the reasons why the MontrÃ©al Protocol was successful in banishing ozone-depleting freons. Sanctions are of course a last resort and signatories are first offered financial and technical support to fulfil their obligations. But trade sanctions loom in the shadows, should they not take MontrÃ©al seriously. And for those countries that wouldn't sign the treaty - they would be shut out from lucrative markets.

Carbon emissions is a much bigger deal than freons but maybe the treaty in Copenhagen could be designed in a similar way?

Coffeehouse · 12-06-2009, 09:21 AM

The success, or presence of a binding agreement, is going to be entirely dependent on the stance of the USA, China and the EU. There is no doubt that if the USA does not commit, China will not commit. Which means that whatever commitment the EU comes with is meaningless without the USA and China on board.

Punitive measures are important, but the focus of the conference will be on the level of cuts developed countries (primarily USA, and EU) can offer and the amount of monetary assistance they will lend to the developing countries (of which China will to some extent consider itself as one of).

I don't think there will be any great breakthrough in December though. Wait until the next meeting of the COP(15) in March 2010 in Doha. The main reason as I see it are the domestic politics of USA. Obama will not get any great commitment from the US Congress in 2009, and will not have the political clout nor energy to engage hard on until after he has passed the Health Care Bill. Give it to March 2010 to see actual binding and truly consequential commitments then.

***Jonathan*** · 12-06-2009, 10:51 AM

I think you are right in all three of your paragraphs above.

With a relatively new president and lots of things going on prior to and after the elections, the US congress I suppose has had too little time to prepare for the upcoming summit. This is something the COP 15 organisers should have been able to foresee. Perhaps the summit was set to a too early date right from the start?

Coffeehouse · 12-06-2009, 12:08 PM

The GOP15 Copenhagen conf. has been scheduled for some time, and it was indeed scheduled long before the financial crisis hit the US, so there has been little opportunity to foresee the poor timing.

Any timing is poor really for the developed countries, nobody wants to engage on this issue with binding commitments in fear of losing the competitive edge on the world economic edge.

But this date seems to be an exceptionally poor time to have it at... and whatever high expectations there were, are now not very high.

It is good that Obama is going to show up late in the discussions, rather than early. These meetings usually involve intense diplomacy that only reaps fruits at the very end, even hours past the formal date. So with the American president coming in at the very end seems more promising than had he shown up early, given a statement, and flown away. Even more importantly it sends a signal of prestige to President Hu Jintao of China and the top dogs in the EU.

Still, Obama, as he pointed out in his speech on Afghanistan a few days ago, says his priority number one at the moment is rebuilding his own country.

Domestic affairs will stay on the agenda until the Health Care Bill passes: the Dems need to pull a few Republicans over the aisle (two Maine senators seem the most promising) since the GOP has decided that instead of contributing to its country it is instead going to behave as the dead weight on a sinking ship.

Which says everything about their priorities: party first, country and Americans second.

Notwithstanding that there seems to be a great deal of work to be done towards Congress to even get a comprehensive climate package passed in the House of Reps, nevermind the Senate.

I think Obama and the US need a few more months before they can constructively turn their efforts towards climate change. To tackle climate change they have to have a seaworthy ship... they need to focus on health care now (which in itself is a extreme challenge for a nation that size. Add unemployment, energy crisis and a deficit and you almost think it's a prank by a higher power) before attention is diverted to the long-term mega mega mega mega challenge.

The Gaffer · 12-08-2009, 06:25 AM

It is a very poor time to have it: about 20 years too late!

Obama's classification of greenhouse gases as harmful emissions is highly significant. When the US decides to act, it usually does so quickly and often effectively (e.g. they banned CFCs in aerosols years before Europe).

inked · 12-08-2009, 07:37 PM

ahhhh, tree-ring data obsfuscation: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...the-world.html

Don't you love the smell of fresh Siberian trees!

And, speaking of pining, aren't you impressed with the fairness and equitability of the US, the UK, and Denmark to all the developing countries and abandonement of Kyoto!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ay-danish-text

Egads, but I luv real UN going-ons! Long live the equality, liberty, and fraternity of US bristlecone pines and Siberian trees!

inked · 12-14-2009, 08:05 PM

Global warming ... upping the ante in Denmark:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUST...rpc=22&sp=true

inked · 12-15-2009, 10:41 AM

Al Gore, Nobel laureate along with Obama, and for equivalently good reasons,
speaks out yet again ERRONEOUSLY,

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6956783.ece

Advanced rotational force applied....................

Scientist responds, "Oh NO I didn't" or its equivalent.

Way to go, Al. Inconveniently unmatching data from the deep recesses of the cooked core of his mind? Like the earth's interior heat and the sun?

Gotta love him! Dufus.

inked · 12-19-2009, 12:14 AM

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...openhagen-deal

All that carbon emitted and all that hot air......................

inked · 12-19-2009, 11:21 PM

Breakthrough or Copout. An interesting headline question:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-a...0,198930.story

I guess it depends on whether you are a Nobel Prize winner or a believer in anthropogenic climate change.

inked · 12-31-2009, 04:09 PM

More bad news about anthropogenic climate change!

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1230184221.htm

But the attempt to obscure the impact is rather entertaining!

inked · 12-31-2009, 04:13 PM

Hey, UVA is a respectable science school.

Here's info on the 1500 year warming / cooling cycle worth a read!

http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=2319

inked · 01-15-2010, 06:41 PM

Gaia is really upset!

http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegr...act_with_gaia/

So, ummm, Copenhagen should have done more? Like, wow, man!

GrayMouser · 01-16-2010, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by inked

Hey, UVA is a respectable science school.

Here's info on the 1500 year warming / cooling cycle worth a read!

http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=2319

Published by a right-wing think tank

As for the author of the report, 85-year-old S. Fred Singer

http://www.desmogblog.com/node/1478

Has an impressive resume, but also willing to reports to order,including those funded by Philip Morris denouncing evidence against 2nd-hand smoking as a government conspiracy.

His current 'work' is paid for by ExxonMobil

Keep digging them up, though you can start to see why no-one bothers to reply to this nonsense any more.

inked · 01-17-2010, 02:39 PM

Right. I much prefer the Danny Glover religious approach, don't you, GM?

Poor old Gaia!

D.Sullivan · 01-17-2010, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by inked

Right. I much prefer the Danny Glover religious approach, don't you, GM?

Poor old Gaia!

Way to go addressing the actual argument, there, Inked. First of all, talk about a false dilemma. Our only sources of information are either an actor or a senile scientist with compromised interests? I must have missed the memo. Secondly, just because some people on the left side of the global warming debate are irrational, that does not make it ok for everyone to be, or excuse you from using sources that are unreliable.

inked · 01-17-2010, 07:56 PM

Another disreputable report from the Times.online:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6991177.ece

Speaking of not addressing the reports.........

D.Sullivan · 01-17-2010, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by inked

Another disreputable report from the Times.online:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6991177.ece

Speaking of not addressing the reports.........

How silly of me! This is not a discussion forum, this is the Inked Daily News feed. I'm merely supposed to sit back and become informed.

GrayMouser · 01-24-2010, 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by inked

Another disreputable report from the Times.online:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6991177.ece

Speaking of not addressing the reports.........

Nope, this one's a legitimate bitch. The IPCC screwed up on that- badly.

Though, of course, the glaciers are still melting.

12-06-2009, 12:19 AM	#441
Count Comfect Word Santa Claus Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 2,922	Unfortunately, given the precedent of Kyoto, I'm going to go with "toothless." But I can still have hope that eventually there will be actual compliance with the goals we set. Unfortunately, this is exactly the sort of situation in which goals have to be set beyond a single administration in any country, no matter how long their terms may be, and it is precisely that sort of policy that has the hardest time being met in the majority of democratic systems in the world today. __________________ Sufficient to have stood, yet free to fall.

12-06-2009, 04:50 AM	#442
*Jonathan* Entmoot Attorney-General, Equilibrating the Scales of Justice, Administrator ♎ Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 3,891	I agree that such long-term regulations are indeed troublesome. Kyoto lacks a mechanism to ensure adherence to the goals and I believe this new treaty will also be drawn up without some kind of penalty for countries that don't comply (of which there are several). Trade sanctions, or rather the threat thereof, is one of the reasons why the MontrÃ©al Protocol was successful in banishing ozone-depleting freons. Sanctions are of course a last resort and signatories are first offered financial and technical support to fulfil their obligations. But trade sanctions loom in the shadows, should they not take MontrÃ©al seriously. And for those countries that wouldn't sign the treaty - they would be shut out from lucrative markets. Carbon emissions is a much bigger deal than freons but maybe the treaty in Copenhagen could be designed in a similar way? __________________ An unwritten post is a delightful universe of infinite possibilities. Set down one word, however, and it immediately becomes earthbound. Set down one sentence and itâ€™s halfway to being just like every other bloody entry thatâ€™s ever been written. ☻

12-06-2009, 09:21 AM	#443
Coffeehouse Entmoot Minister of Foreign Affairs Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Copenhagen Posts: 2,145	The success, or presence of a binding agreement, is going to be entirely dependent on the stance of the USA, China and the EU. There is no doubt that if the USA does not commit, China will not commit. Which means that whatever commitment the EU comes with is meaningless without the USA and China on board. Punitive measures are important, but the focus of the conference will be on the level of cuts developed countries (primarily USA, and EU) can offer and the amount of monetary assistance they will lend to the developing countries (of which China will to some extent consider itself as one of). I don't think there will be any great breakthrough in December though. Wait until the next meeting of the COP(15) in March 2010 in Doha. The main reason as I see it are the domestic politics of USA. Obama will not get any great commitment from the US Congress in 2009, and will not have the political clout nor energy to engage hard on until after he has passed the Health Care Bill. Give it to March 2010 to see actual binding and truly consequential commitments then. __________________ "Well, thief! I smell you and I feel your air. I hear your breath. Come along! Help yourself again, there is plenty and to spare."

12-06-2009, 10:51 AM	#444
*Jonathan* Entmoot Attorney-General, Equilibrating the Scales of Justice, Administrator ♎ Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 3,891	I think you are right in all three of your paragraphs above. With a relatively new president and lots of things going on prior to and after the elections, the US congress I suppose has had too little time to prepare for the upcoming summit. This is something the COP 15 organisers should have been able to foresee. Perhaps the summit was set to a too early date right from the start? __________________ An unwritten post is a delightful universe of infinite possibilities. Set down one word, however, and it immediately becomes earthbound. Set down one sentence and itâ€™s halfway to being just like every other bloody entry thatâ€™s ever been written. ☻

12-06-2009, 12:08 PM	#445
Coffeehouse Entmoot Minister of Foreign Affairs Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Copenhagen Posts: 2,145	The GOP15 Copenhagen conf. has been scheduled for some time, and it was indeed scheduled long before the financial crisis hit the US, so there has been little opportunity to foresee the poor timing. Any timing is poor really for the developed countries, nobody wants to engage on this issue with binding commitments in fear of losing the competitive edge on the world economic edge. But this date seems to be an exceptionally poor time to have it at... and whatever high expectations there were, are now not very high. It is good that Obama is going to show up late in the discussions, rather than early. These meetings usually involve intense diplomacy that only reaps fruits at the very end, even hours past the formal date. So with the American president coming in at the very end seems more promising than had he shown up early, given a statement, and flown away. Even more importantly it sends a signal of prestige to President Hu Jintao of China and the top dogs in the EU. Still, Obama, as he pointed out in his speech on Afghanistan a few days ago, says his priority number one at the moment is rebuilding his own country. Domestic affairs will stay on the agenda until the Health Care Bill passes: the Dems need to pull a few Republicans over the aisle (two Maine senators seem the most promising) since the GOP has decided that instead of contributing to its country it is instead going to behave as the dead weight on a sinking ship. Which says everything about their priorities: party first, country and Americans second. Notwithstanding that there seems to be a great deal of work to be done towards Congress to even get a comprehensive climate package passed in the House of Reps, nevermind the Senate. I think Obama and the US need a few more months before they can constructively turn their efforts towards climate change. To tackle climate change they have to have a seaworthy ship... they need to focus on health care now (which in itself is a extreme challenge for a nation that size. Add unemployment, energy crisis and a deficit and you almost think it's a prank by a higher power) before attention is diverted to the long-term mega mega mega mega challenge. __________________ "Well, thief! I smell you and I feel your air. I hear your breath. Come along! Help yourself again, there is plenty and to spare."

12-08-2009, 06:25 AM	#446
The Gaffer Elf Lord Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: In me taters Posts: 3,288	It is a very poor time to have it: about 20 years too late! Obama's classification of greenhouse gases as harmful emissions is highly significant. When the US decides to act, it usually does so quickly and often effectively (e.g. they banned CFCs in aerosols years before Europe).

12-08-2009, 07:37 PM	#447
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	ahhhh, tree-ring data obsfuscation: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...the-world.html Don't you love the smell of fresh Siberian trees! And, speaking of pining, aren't you impressed with the fairness and equitability of the US, the UK, and Denmark to all the developing countries and abandonement of Kyoto! http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ay-danish-text Egads, but I luv real UN going-ons! Long live the equality, liberty, and fraternity of US bristlecone pines and Siberian trees! __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

12-14-2009, 08:05 PM	#448
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	Global warming ... upping the ante in Denmark: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUST...rpc=22&sp=true __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

12-15-2009, 10:41 AM	#449
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	Al Gore, Nobel laureate along with Obama, and for equivalently good reasons, speaks out yet again ERRONEOUSLY, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6956783.ece Advanced rotational force applied.................... Scientist responds, "Oh NO I didn't" or its equivalent. Way to go, Al. Inconveniently unmatching data from the deep recesses of the cooked core of his mind? Like the earth's interior heat and the sun? Gotta love him! Dufus. __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

12-19-2009, 12:14 AM	#450
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...openhagen-deal All that carbon emitted and all that hot air...................... __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

12-19-2009, 11:21 PM	#451
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	Breakthrough or Copout. An interesting headline question: http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-a...0,198930.story I guess it depends on whether you are a Nobel Prize winner or a believer in anthropogenic climate change. __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941 Last edited by inked : 12-19-2009 at 11:22 PM. Reason: speelin' agin --- no NOble prizes there for mi

12-31-2009, 04:09 PM	#452
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	More bad news about anthropogenic climate change! http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1230184221.htm But the attempt to obscure the impact is rather entertaining! __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

12-31-2009, 04:13 PM	#453
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	Hey, UVA is a respectable science school. Here's info on the 1500 year warming / cooling cycle worth a read! http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=2319 __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

01-15-2010, 06:41 PM	#454
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	Gaia is really upset! http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegr...act_with_gaia/ So, ummm, Copenhagen should have done more? Like, wow, man! __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

01-17-2010, 02:39 PM	#456
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	Right. I much prefer the Danny Glover religious approach, don't you, GM? Poor old Gaia! __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

01-17-2010, 07:56 PM	#458
inked Elf Lord Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol Posts: 3,114	Another disreputable report from the Times.online: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6991177.ece Speaking of not addressing the reports......... __________________ Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941

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