11-20-2009, 08:07 AM | #401 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol
Posts: 3,114
|
Alcuin, thanks for the reference to the article. It relates a number of inconvenient truths. Data is such a nasty concept. Why should it interfere?
__________________
Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941 |
11-20-2009, 08:16 AM | #402 | |
The Chocoholic Sea Elf Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: N?n in Eilph (Belgium)
Posts: 14,363
|
Quote:
__________________
We are not things. |
|
11-20-2009, 12:21 PM | #403 | |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Ilha Formosa
Posts: 2,068
|
Quote:
Did you read the report you cite? There is a pause in global warming of less than a decade after thirty years of increases. The scientists quoted disagree about the reason for the pause, but every one of them agrees that it is the result of a natural process that doesn't negate the underlying cause of additional human-caused warming. They all warn against complacency due to a short-term trend. Since you believe they are lying due to ideology, it doesn't matter to you that the very people you cite warn aganst the conclusions you reach- that's simply further proof of their dishonesty. Sorry, I think I'll still trust them instead of you.
__________________
Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep. Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come when you do call for them? "I like pigs. Dogs look up to us, cats look down on us, but pigs treat us as equals."- Winston Churchill |
|
11-20-2009, 05:29 PM | #404 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol
Posts: 3,114
|
__________________
Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941 |
11-20-2009, 07:44 PM | #405 | ||||||
Salt Miner
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: gone to Far Harad
Posts: 987
|
I did read it, ’Mouser: hence the sarcastic reference to Der Spiegel as a “paragon of right-wing revisionist denialism”.
I was trained in science and engineering. Painfully trained. I have read the science, and in my opinion – it is not a professional opinion, because I am neither a professional scientist nor a professional engineer – it stinks. You should draw your own conclusions. As best you are able, you should read both sides of the argument, and familiarize yourself with previous hysterias concerning warming and cooling fears. Consider this scenario. Suppose a handful of scientists from several universities, along with a couple of colleagues from the government with whom they had worked and studied, suddenly proclaimed that they had a sure-fire cure for some disease or another. The disease, however, is sketchy – Morgellons – and controversial. (I happen to think evidence suggests Morgellons is real ailment, so I use it without prejudice here.) Several high-profile former elected government officials hop on the bandwagon, and they demand legislation to inoculate the entire population because – let us continue in this imaginary vein – it may be caused by meteoritic dust. (That’s actually been suggested in the case of Morgellons.) The vaccine in our imaginary case, however, is also sketchy, and has some pretty serious side effects. The Morgellans vaccine supporters insist that the science is conclusive, and using their influence in the government, they silence all official opposition. University scientists also manage to silence opponents, disparaging them both personally and professionally in faculty and professional meetings. Then, lo and behold, it turns out that the high-profile former elected government officials are controlling investors in the vaccine companies. The scientists, who did their work using public funds and often in government employment and government laboratories, refuse to fully disclose the data or experiments that led to their conclusions, claiming private intellectual property ownership of the research. Finally, shady investors have been financing the scientists, and those scientists have been both blocking publication of articles critical of their conclusions and denying tenure and even employment to professionals with the temerity to question them. Oh, I forgot to mention three other crucial components. First, the high-profile centerpiece exhibit proving that Morgellons is a substantial threat requiring immediate vaccination is seriously mishandled data – and that would be a generous assessment. Second, a powerful underlying trend has been going on for thousands – and probably millions – of years. It produces effects similar to those observed, and might even be about to cycle down again. Third, one of the most powerful proponents of the vaccine is found by the High Court in London to have misrepresented the facts and misled his hearers, the Law Lord proclaiming in his pronouncement of judgment: “The armageddon scenario ... is not in line with the scientific consensus.” Big money controls the popular press, so the stories you read in the papers and see on television cry from the bandwagon, “Mandatory vaccinations now!” “Naysayers” and “deniers” are derided as kooks and crackpots – or villains or worse. Is it true? Is it not true? If you think it’s worth the risk, take the vaccine. Just don’t make me take it. -|- While Eric Hoffer is called a “philosopher,” The True Believer is more like a handbook on what to look for in mass movements, and how people react to them. Another is available on-line for free, Charles Mackay’s wonderful treatise, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Be sure to read the famous section on the late-seventeenth century Tulip Mania, which bankrupted the Dutch Republic! Mackay’s book is mostly read these days by investors, but its applicability to politics and society as a whole is far more important. Besides being immensely entertaining (especially the Tulip Mania chapter) – Mackay (pronounced “Mack-KYE”) has an acerbic sense of humor – he reveals an accurate but sadly unflattering portrait of humanity, yet without disparaging recrimination or condemnation. -|- One specific rejoinder (the thread was well-written): Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
-|- Now I am out of this thread. I have presented my case, not once, but twice: for convenience, the previous post is here. I do not find this subject entertaining, but such thorough responses are exceedingly time-consuming, and I do not have the luxury to continue, particularly when I would rather be posting on the history of Arnor! I do not purport to know the truth; however, the devices and arguments of one side in this debate are particularly disturbing. Specifically, as I wrote before, there is one side in this debate that:
Quote:
There is a rule of Logic attributed to Oliver Cromwell aptly known as Cromwell’s Rule: Quote:
Last edited by Alcuin : 11-20-2009 at 08:59 PM. |
||||||
11-21-2009, 10:22 AM | #406 | |
Entmoot Attorney-General,
Equilibrating the Scales of Justice, Administrator ♎ Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Stockholm, Sweden
Posts: 3,891
|
Quote:
The mention how of global temperatures have reached a plateau phase must lead many a global warming denier to draw some hasty conclusions. In the article one can also read that: "The differences among individual regions of the world are considerable. In the Arctic, for example, temperatures rose by almost three degrees Celsius, which led to a dramatic melting of sea ice. At the same time, temperatures declined in large areas of North America, the western Pacific and the Arabian Peninsula. Europe, including Germany, remains slightly in positive warming territory." Global stagnant temperatures or not, this still pretty much sounds like climate change to me
__________________
An unwritten post is a delightful universe of infinite possibilities. Set down one word, however, and it immediately becomes earthbound. Set down one sentence and it’s halfway to being just like every other bloody entry that’s ever been written. ☻ |
|
11-22-2009, 06:42 PM | #407 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol
Posts: 3,114
|
Apparently, these guys are using the same photo and the SAME OLD ERRONEOUS DATA:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091122/..._09_post_kyoto They think warming's worse since 1997! Amazing how they ignore the real actual scientific data about it NOT. Slow news day or internationalist conspiracy? You decide. And have you heard the ones about the data that don't match and the English?
__________________
Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941 |
11-22-2009, 08:12 PM | #408 |
Word Santa Claus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 2,922
|
Did you read the article, inked? It isn't just talking about it getting warmer, it's about the effects of climate change getting worse. Like the sea level rising an inch and a half in twelve years.
__________________
Sufficient to have stood, yet free to fall. |
11-23-2009, 10:37 AM | #409 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol
Posts: 3,114
|
CC, the question is not whether ocean levels change. We have excellent evidence that occurs in the geologic and paleontological record. The question is whether or not global warming is the culprit as an anthropogenic effect solely and somehow (oh, the hubris!) manageable by the imposition of alleged controls.
The following are points to ponder........ 1. NASA’s real opinion of Dr. James Hansen 2. Somebody hacked into the global warming e-mail server… 3. …more on the same… 4. …yet more on the same… 5. …and another… 6. …and yet another! When one obscures data and seeks ideologically to control the data flow in allegedly objective journals of peers, "Houston, we have a problem." This will be most easily solved in the case of sea level rises by moving the affected cities out of reach of the oncoming elevations. Just as the villages now under the ocean had to relocate to current levels. And the ice bridge/land bridge effects of the last ice age were NOT due to human intervention but natural cycling. How much is anthropogenic? Can we alter the natural processes of climate change that are demonstrably cyclical without human effects?
__________________
Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941 |
11-24-2009, 05:55 AM | #410 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: In me taters
Posts: 3,288
|
No, here are the points to ponder
The starting position of almost all climate change deniers is "it can't be true it snowed in x yesterday" or "it can't be true, that guy over there who is a proponent of climate change said something incorrect in this email that was hacked and taken out of context so the whole thing is a house of cards". Further you see the denialists posting claims like "there is a large and growing body of evidence showing climate change is wrong" (or "data, data, data" for that matter) but can they post a single scientific study to support their claim? No, they can't. Can you Alcuin? Can you post a link to something that is actual science? By the way, that's what's called reasoned debate. For some reason, denialists expect to be given equal weight in a scientific debate, when they have NO SCIENCE TO BACK THEM UP. That's where the problem is. Of course, there is no scientific debate, because the science is decided, until and unless new evidence arises. It is long past time to move on from debate to action. Which is, of course, what the deniers are worried about. The debate is now political, and they are getting increasingly desperate. Expect more underhand stunts and spin from now on. Last edited by The Gaffer : 11-24-2009 at 06:06 AM. |
11-24-2009, 09:29 AM | #411 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol
Posts: 3,114
|
Okedokeee, Gaff,
Be sure and tell Al G next time he's on a big venue to get his facts right. It is kinda hard to take seriously claims that the earth's core has the same temperature as the sun. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns_4p...layer_embedded Here's some science: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/con...07510701529653 But really, why should we be concerned when the Big Guys Who All Say There IS An Emergency, but whose data fail to demonstrate It? Could it be that their computer models are wrong? Is there a chance they have a paradigm error? Or should we not question but only believe?
__________________
Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941 Last edited by inked : 11-24-2009 at 09:32 AM. Reason: insert link |
11-24-2009, 09:45 AM | #412 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol
Posts: 3,114
|
Gee, my links did not work, Gaffer! And you did not tell me? Could it be you did not try to read 'em?
Here are the links: [*]NASA’s real opinion of Dr. James Hansen [*]Somebody hacked into the global warming e-mail server… [*]…more on the same… [*]…yet more on the same… [*]…and another… [*]…and yet another! I do apologize for my error in posting the links. I appreciate the message notifying me of the failure of the links! All help is appreciated greatly. We will not reveal names in case the Climate Police come on line and (*arrrgh*).......................................: eek:
__________________
Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941 |
11-24-2009, 08:34 PM | #413 |
Word Santa Claus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 2,922
|
inked,
You keep saying we know nature has cycles. This is true. But we know based on the same science that tells us right now that things are going much faster than they typically did in those cycles - as in, an inch and a half of sealevel rise in a decade. Besides which, you never seem to confront the idea that, even if a lot of this is a natural cycle, we still know CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and one we are releasing into the atmosphere at rates unknown in the past (because we're using up millions-to-billions of years of stored carbon in the form of fossil fuels, carbon that was sequestered naturally out of the environment and is now being pumped right back into the air directly). So even if there's a natural cycle going on, it's almost impossible to believe that we're not making things worse - and maybe we should stop doing that. As to the links you posted, NASA, like most scientific research organizations, is administrated precisely by those people who did not hack it as researchers, or who have aged out of the field (this is why a lot of scientific organizations have rather poor administration, by the way, since they aren't professional administrators in the way they should be). Thus I would be disinclined to accept the opinion of Hansen's (former) supervisor; in addition, he may well be right that Hansen was premature in 1988, but that doesn't mean the past 21 additional years of data don't show Hansen may have been (lucky to be) right. As for your other links, on the East Anglia controversy, I recommend this link quite highly. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/...-bytes-of.html
__________________
Sufficient to have stood, yet free to fall. |
11-25-2009, 02:52 AM | #414 | |||
Salt Miner
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: gone to Far Harad
Posts: 987
|
As I was writing my last post – the post I wanted to be my last in this thread – the global warming scandal broke. I want out of this thread, but I am galled by what the folks at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia have done.
This is from an e-mail from Dr. Phil Jones at CRU: Quote:
Well, you don’t need a PhD to see what “Mike’s Nature trick” did to the data (Click on the image for a link to the chart source and much more information): Lord Lawson was Chancellor of the Exchequer 1983-89. Here’s his reaction: Quote:
The rest of you can make your own decisions, but I cannot bring myself to trust a group of people who have now been caught
For those of you who are not involved in one side or another of this thread, watch what happens to the exposed, compromised climate researchers over the next year or two. This is what makes Tolkien such a great writer: he is a conduit by which we can see our own world in a way that makes sense. Do you remember when Gandalf, Théoden, and their companions left Orthanc after confronting Saruman? Merry asked Gandalf if things were “likely to end any other way?” Quote:
|
|||
11-25-2009, 07:44 AM | #415 | |
The Chocoholic Sea Elf Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: N?n in Eilph (Belgium)
Posts: 14,363
|
Quote:
And if we're making comparisons with Tolkien, I doubt the great man would approve of such a breach in the privacy of letters. He had standards after all.
__________________
We are not things. |
|
11-25-2009, 04:16 PM | #416 | |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: In me taters
Posts: 3,288
|
Quote:
A cropped chart from a blog? Not science. Nigel Lawson? Not a scientist. See? You can't find any because there isn't any. Your only argument is the assertion that the entire scientific community is engaged in a worldwide conspiracy. Codswallop. |
|
11-25-2009, 08:54 PM | #417 | |||
Salt Miner
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: gone to Far Harad
Posts: 987
|
Quote:
Quote:
Suppose we examine this: Quote:
Just read through the e-mails at the links inked has provided:
Listen to comments of retired climatologist Dr. Tim Ball, who was smeared and derogated by the folks at the CRU. But then I don’t suppose he’s a “legitimate” scientist either. Right? We cannot suppose Dr. Ian Plimer, PhD, counts as scientist, either, does he? But it’s their behavior that’s the giveaway! Any parent who’s caught a child red-handed and red-faced can read their actions. Again, I say to everyone in the ’Moot, be very suspicious of anyone who:
By the way, that “cropped chart from a blog? Not science.” The blogger is “an Associate Professor of Engineering in Michigan.” Not science, engineering. Nah, he can’t know what he’s talkin’ about. We cannot suppose that any of these people know what they’re talking about. Of course not! We should not trust Dr. Jim Hansen’s old boss, who says Hansen’s global warming science is defective; or the man who spent his entire professional career studying sea level changes and is recognized as the foremost authority in his field, who says the global warming science is defective; or a retired climatologist who has been smeared by this merry mess of meta-meteorologists; or a professional geologist whose career success depended in part upon his accurate analysis of the geological history of global warming and cooling in the last hundred million years of earth’s history; or even an engineering professor who’s taken the time to go through the e-mails and computer codes of the Climate Research Unit and find them … deficient. Oh, no. We should trust a bunch of people now caught red-handed
Look, let’s put this in terms of Entmoot the Tolkien Trail board. If I made up a quote to win a debate on Entmoot, and cited some private correspondence by Tolkien that no one else had heard of, conspired with one group of ’Mooters to smear the other side, and then tried to destroy the evidence, would you trust me? I can tell you right now, if you did that to me, I wouldn’t trust you ever again, either on a Tolkien board or anyplace else. That’s bad behavior! And you don’t have to be an amateur Tolkien buff – or a climatologist – to make that determination. If you’ve made it this far into the post – and yes, I know I write TLDR posts – just think for yourself. If you’ve believed in man-made global warming, and you are convinced that’s the truth, well, ok. But I think you should pay attention to
But lest I close this post without a piece of pure opinion, have a look at this. Last edited by Alcuin : 11-25-2009 at 09:37 PM. Reason: Correct my Latin. (I knew I should have taken Latin II…) |
|||
11-26-2009, 09:45 AM | #418 | ||||
The Chocoholic Sea Elf Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: N?n in Eilph (Belgium)
Posts: 14,363
|
Quote:
Also, while NASA is always a great name to bandy around, has this guy actual been involved in science in the last 15 years? He retired from his position in NASA is the nineties but science has advanced quite a bit since then, not in the least in computer modelling. Now, I reckon that posted quote is mostly mined from an entire interview, but I can't shake the impression he's generalising too much, which most scientists should know they shouldn't. For starters, he is very quick to dismiss all climate models because supposedly some scientists have tampered with theirs. That's not how science works either. Quote:
However, if I read a bit on Mörner, his point seems to be less that the sea won't rise at all, but that the sea will rise less then the IPPC projects. This may be a valid enough point, I suppose. I lack marine and coastal geology credentials (and time) to look in the pro and contra agruments. But remember this only touches on the projections of sea levels, though, not on global warming, or climate change as a whole. The INQUA, it seems, no longer supports his current views. And Mörner's certainly not without his own critics, and then I don't mean people who oh so cruelly vilify him, but also, you know, those that actually pose scientific questions regarding to Mörner's techniques and findings. I should see (if I have more time on my hands) if I can find whether his studies have been put before peer review and what was the result of that. He is also retired, I note, (as most of the guys you mentioned are) and by the look of things his main speciality is paleogeology (which is awesome enough on its own). Seems like an interesting guy, but not without a few quirks, by the look of things! I was amused to learn he appears a supporter of dowsing, of all things. A most curious interest for a scientist lecturing the world community on water levels! I admit, I'm intrigued. Quote:
Quote:
__________________
We are not things. |
||||
11-26-2009, 08:21 PM | #419 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: In me taters
Posts: 3,288
|
Well said, Earniel. You are too kind.
Alcuin, I did follow those links, and none of them had any science in them. It was all spin. Let's take one of your "science" credentials. Dr Ian Plimer PhD. (Does that mean he has two PhDs)?? He is a geologist, not a climate scientist. He is a member of a free market think tank. Oh, and he is a director of three mining companies. You couldn't make it up, really you couldn't. If it wasn't so serious it would be funny. That's your idea of science is it? Some bloke who is a scientist objects to a theory that's not in his discipline. This theory would, if believed, result in harm to his personal commercial interests. This bloke subsequently makes a very nice consultancy career out of campaigning against this theory. Last edited by The Gaffer : 11-26-2009 at 08:24 PM. |
11-28-2009, 02:51 PM | #420 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: sikeston, MO, usa, earth, sol
Posts: 3,114
|
Now, here's some real science, ya'll:
128 YEARS of SCIENTIFIC PREDICTIONS .... http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegr...ernal_melting/ HOW THE DATA SHOULD BE PRESENTED ... And, I love the way the photo shots are laid out in this lovely prospectus: http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk...searchers.html But, really, we are overdue for an asteroid/comet impact! .......And the supervolcano under Yellowstone Park is waaaaaaaaaaay overdue........ Oh, golly gee whiz, Mr. Wilkins, I nearly forgot this lovely little rant which shall no doubt endear its journalistic author vitriol and such: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ge...-lost-the-war/ Please, step into your refrigerator before blowing a gasket and contributing to global warming in outrage.
__________________
Inked "Aslan is not a tame lion." CSL/LWW "The new school [acts] as if it required...courage to say a blasphemy. There is only one thing that requires real courage to say, and that is a truism." GK Chesterton "And there is always the danger of allowing people to suppose that our modern times are so wholly unlike any other times that the fundamental facts about man's nature have wholly changed with changing circumstances." Dorothy L. Sayers, 1 Sept. 1941 Last edited by inked : 11-28-2009 at 03:08 PM. Reason: lovely ditty on scientific reliabilty and reporting.......added |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Book V; ch IX and X. The Last Debate and The Black Gate Opens | crickhollow | LOTR Discussion Project | 33 | 02-29-2008 10:28 AM |
Dependence of oil = Need for global powerprojecting. | Grey_Wolf | General Messages | 19 | 07-11-2005 01:44 PM |
Insidious, Lief and R*an debate all things great and small. | Lief Erikson | General Messages | 139 | 09-12-2004 01:36 AM |
The Official Entmoot Presidential Debate | Tessar | General Messages | 83 | 03-20-2004 02:47 PM |
The Entmoot Presidential Debate | Darth Tater | Entmoot Archive | 163 | 12-06-2002 09:44 PM |