Book V; ch IX and X. The Last Debate and The Black Gate Opens

[The Telcontarion]

Matt.10;34:
"Think not that I am come to send peace on earth: I came not to send peace, but a sword."

Just a little more proof on that point about jesus not being a pacifist.

[CAB]

Concerning Sauron's fears about his enemies in Middle Earth receiving help from higher up, I agree with Gordis. We have to remember, when considering Sauron's actions (and I would guess this applies when looking at any character's actions) that his own beliefs or suspicions matter far more than the actual truth. Maybe Eru and the Valar had taken a hand and maybe they hadn't, but it is very likely that Sauron believed that they had, given how unlikely his defeat on the Pelanor was and the hard-to-miss symbolic western wind.

Originally Posted by Gordis

Please, calculate the probability of the Witch King being confronted on the battlefield by a woman in disguise + a halfling + a Barrow blade.

You could say that the chances are incredibly small, but there is another way to look at it. The prophesy that the Witch King wouldn't be defeated by a Man is really also a prophesy that he would be defeated by someone who wasn't a Man. Looked at this way, Eowyn, Merry, and the sword's presence aren't particularly surprising. Sooner or later some non-Man would have to be around to kill the Witch King and would need the proper tool to do the job. It was simply a matter of when.




About the terms, I would guess that they were pretty much meaningless, beyond Sauron toying with his enemies. Sauron could probably be expected to not stick to an agreement. The westerners could be expected not to accept any terms (except Sauron's surrender) given the situation. They had just won a major battle and marched several days (often proclaiming on the way that they were taking back their land) to Sauron's gates, where they demanded he "come forth. Justice shall be done upon him." Most importantly, Sauron thought that the new (but still learning) ringlord was leading this army. One of the Ring's effects is to make its holder think he is capable of much more than he in truth is. So, I think Sauron knew quite well that the westerners didn't come to surrender.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by CAB

Concerning Sauron's fears about his enemies in Middle Earth receiving help from higher up, I agree with Gordis. We have to remember, when considering Sauron's actions (and I would guess this applies when looking at any character's actions) that his own beliefs or suspicions matter far more than the actual truth.

True enough, but I don't think I have questioned the difference between actual events and Sauron's perception of them, at least it was not my intention. I was speaking (or attempting to at least) about the possibility/probability of a Western intervention, not Sauron's thoughts about it.

I may have mis-understood Gordis' post then.

[Butterbeer]

mmmm.. read this (sketchily this morning - had a few things to add ...)

but am too tired now to concentrate ...

Have fun all, best BB

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Earniel

I never said Sauron was mindlessly sadistic. I do think he was a very calculating and rational being. But none of that contradicts the idea that he would like to toy with his enemy first.

OK, he would probably do that if he were confident in himself. But it was not the case at the Black Gate. I don't think he was simply toying- he tried to get more info this way.

Originally Posted by Earniel

I disagree with your assessment of the involvement of the West.

CAB was right that I wanted to show things from Sauron's perspective, not to prove the immediate involvement of the Valar/Eru. Though I must say that on three occasions: the prophetic dream "Seek for the Sword that was broken", the resurrection and upgrade of Gandalf, and the West Wind, I see direct meddling of the Powers (here I mean both Eru and the Valar). For the rest the intervention is more difficult to pinpoint, things just happened this way, but Sauron would likely see the hand of Fate here also.

Tolkien says Sauron was weighting and calculating everything, that's why I spoke about probabilities. When lots of low-probability events happen at once, and all of them in favour of his enemies, it can't be natural.

Let us take a random example. For instance at the Buckleberry ferry the boat happened to be moored on the West bank. If it were at the East bank, the hobbits would have been caught by the nazgul, most likely. The probability here is 50% - so I doubt this event being not in his favour would worry Sauron unduly, not like something with probability of 0.000001% - like the fall of the WK. (I hope I am coherent here! )

CAB is right, the fall of the WK to "no man" had been prophesized, not random. So it must have been in the Music, but then perhaps all the rest was as well? Maybe Sauron's fall was also simply inevitable? Maybe the ones who had played the music took care afterwards to see it all come to pass? There was a lot to set the Dark Lord thinking and to make him afraid.

See how Sauron had reacted to the nazgul's failure in the Shire:

The wrath and fear of Sauron then may be guessed; yet if there was any in the world in whom he trusted it was the Lord of Angmar; and if his wrath were lessened by perceiving that his great servant had defeated by ill chance (and the craft of the Wise) rather than by faults of his own, his fear would be the more – seeing what power was yet in his Enemies, and how sharply fortune favoured them at each turn when all seemed lost. Marquette MSS 4/2/36 (The Hunt for the Ring) RC, p 262-3

By the way, Saruman felt much the same way about Gandalf:

In his heart Saruman recognized the great power and the strange "good fortune" that went with Gandalf.-UT

Originally Posted by Earniel

I disagree with the demands being reasonable. The lands south of the Anduin had been taken by Sauron, yes, but they were also re-taken when the Western armies marched through them. Sauron also had no claim on the lands, other than by conquest. The treaty would not officiate a current situation. It would mean Gondor would had to give up lands they owned quite longer than Sauron, lands that had been captured by the enemy, but also retaken.

Well Earniel... if we go back, the lands were most likely Sauron's very own since he settled in Mordor around 1000 of the Second Age. Then Isildur quite brasenly built Minas Ithil right on Sauron's doorstep, annexing Mordor's lands unlawfully. The same was true for the East bank of Anduin and for Umbar and Harad that the nasty Gondorian imperialists had conquered around TA 1000.

[Earniel]

Originally Posted by Gordis

OK, he would probably do that if he were confident in himself. But it was not the case at the Black Gate. I don't think he was simply toying- he tried to get more info this way.

I do still think Sauron was confident in his military force at the Black gate. The possibility of the ring being used was indeed a gnawing uncertainty and I do agree the Mouth of Sauron was trying to fish for information during the conversation with the gondorean embassy, just as Gandalf was from his side. But I do think that Sauron had sufficiently prepared for the only thing he could fully prepare for, and that was military strenght. Confident at least in his greater military strenght, but probably not quite as confident in other factors such as the West involvement of Aragorn use and possession of the Ring.

CAB was right that I wanted to show things from Sauron's perspective, not to prove the immediate involvement of the Valar/Eru. Though I must say that on three occasions: the prophetic dream "Seek for the Sword that was broken", the resurrection and upgrade of Gandalf, and the West Wind, I see direct meddling of the Powers (here I mean both Eru and the Valar). For the rest the intervention is more difficult to pinpoint, things just happened this way, but Sauron would likely see the hand of Fate here also.

Okay, I misunderstood then.

It would be interesting to know whether or how much Sauron knew of the prophecy and Gandalf's upgrade. He could have learned of the prophecy only through Denethor since it wasn't that widely known. But I have my doubts that Denethor had much faith in the whole thing or that Sauron could pry this from him.

Gandalf's upgrade may not have been evident, other than his sudden preference to white garb. The Witch-King makes no mention of it in their brief encounter, but then again their meeting was brief. If he noticed anything, I doubt he had the time to pass this info through to Sauron. Unless they got some out of Saruman earlier, but it remains to be seen if Saruman in his bitterness saw much of changes in Gandalf.

It must have been pretty frightening for Sauron to consider the influence of the Valar. Regardless of what hint Sauron did perceive of it, it must surely have puzzled him as it sort of puzzles me. Why now? They never interfered with Sauron before, not even in the last Alliance. The sending of the wizards is about the only thing the Valar have done since the destruction of Númenor, and even that is rather indirect.

CAB is right, the fall of the WK to "no man" had been prophesized, not random. So it must have been in the Music, but then perhaps all the rest was as well? Maybe Sauron's fall was also simply inevitable? Maybe the ones who had played the music took care afterwards to see it all come to pass? There was a lot to set the Dark Lord thinking and to make him afraid.

It's difficult to say just what was in the Music, I'm inclined to take the stance that individual events were not sung in the Music, only themes and rules by which they would take place. But this position is debatable.

Well Earniel... if we go back, the lands were most likely Sauron's very own since he settled in Mordor around 1000 of the Second Age. Then Isildur quite brasenly built Minas Ithil right on Sauron's doorstep, annexing Mordor's lands unlawfully. The same was true for the East bank of Anduin and for Umbar and Harad that the nasty Gondorian imperialists had conquered around TA 1000.

Yes and no, Sauron only had Mordor itself as his land, while the other lands around were likely under influence, they were not his. Frankly I doubt Ithilien would have been as beautiful a land if it had been Sauron's. If the Exiles hadn't thought Sauron had perished in Númenor, I doubt they'd have built homes right on his doorstep, not in his land but at the borders. It was not the brightest choice of living space, if you ask me, but hey.

Umbar is a very difficult place to put ownership on, the Gondorean claim can indeed be considered sketchy after all this time. But Sauron pretty much never actually owned it, in my eyes. The Black Númenoreans were followers of Sauron, but not necessarily subjects.

Sauron doesn't own Harad in a similar way. If the lands of Umbar and Harad were included in the terms, then basically what Sauron is asking is more land than the Gondoreans actually can give since some of it was neither theirs or Sauron's in the first place. But that's the last I'm going to say on this matter. Sorry Gordis, but all these territory disputes make my head spin.