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#121 |
An enigma in a conundrum
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 6,476
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hope that we can adjust as well as Steve Martin in "The Jerk" did when he found out he wasn't black.
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#122 | |
An enigma in a conundrum
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 6,476
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Quote:
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Vizzini: "HE DIDN'T FALL?! INCONCEIVABLE!!" Inigo: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." |
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#123 |
Lady of Letters
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Either Oxford or Kent, England
Posts: 2,476
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I'd rather trust my own experience that our society will not change for the worse when it has a substantial proportion of non-white non-Christian members, than believe in astrologers' predictions.
That make more sense?
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And all the time the waves, the waves, the waves Chase, intersect and flatten on the sand As they have done for centuries, as they will For centuries to come, when not a soul Is left to picnic on the blazing rocks, When England is not England, when mankind Has blown himself to pieces. Still the sea, Consolingly disastrous, will return While the strange starfish, hugely magnified, Waits in the jewelled basin of a pool. |
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#124 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: here and there
Posts: 3,514
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what? five million heavily armed muslims against a few wishy washy astrologers?
i'd back the muslims too! |
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#125 |
An enigma in a conundrum
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 6,476
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BB at least you caught the meat of the post..
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Vizzini: "HE DIDN'T FALL?! INCONCEIVABLE!!" Inigo: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." |
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#126 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Durham, England
Posts: 694
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Ah good old predictions in social science. Anyone who pays the slightest bit of attention to them really should check out those of Paul Ehrlich in the late 60s/early 70s. Very influential and (at the time) respected Stanford professor who predicted with a fair degree of confidence that by the close of the 20th century:
Countries such as UK and India would have ceased to existEtc, etc. I'm sure everyone was predicting dire things for America after the 1960s riots and for the UK after the 1980s riots. Well guess what, both countries are still there, and I dare say so will France be after we're all pushing up daisies.
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I'm beset by self-doubt ....or am I? |
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#127 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: In me taters
Posts: 3,288
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Last edited by The Gaffer : 12-02-2005 at 02:52 PM. Reason: Adding link |
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#128 |
An enigma in a conundrum
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 6,476
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Draken, we're not talking idle speculation. These predictions by social scientist, in the most, are based upon statistical data of birth records and immigration.
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Vizzini: "HE DIDN'T FALL?! INCONCEIVABLE!!" Inigo: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." Last edited by Spock : 12-02-2005 at 04:37 PM. |
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#129 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: here and there
Posts: 3,514
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and that's possibly just the official data ...
word on the street here is, that ain't anywhere near .. not that i have any problem with it ... whattya going to do? i have my own life to lead. but it bears thinking about ... |
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#130 | |
The Chocoholic Sea Elf Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: N?n in Eilph (Belgium)
Posts: 14,363
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Quote:
Consider the riot-situation in France. All that chaos was started by the death of only two youngsters. The motivation (the resentment against the goverment, the having no hope for the future ect..) was already present in the population but without the death of those two teenagers the riot may have never sparked and grown. Who could foresee that such a little incident had so great consequences? Who could have predicted that one murder in Sarajevo started the first World War? Who could have guessed that one woman refusing to give her place to a white man could lead to such a social upheaval? You can't predict this. You can't forsee this and take it into account while making predictions. And these have an enormous impact on societies. So making predictions about societies based on birth rates and immigration rates is one thing. But it's at best only a BAU-scenario: how will thing look then if everything goes on as it does today? One has to be careful to heed these 'predictions'. IMO they are too static and sketchy. And please, do enlighten me what you mean by that last sentence? ![]()
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We are not things. Last edited by Earniel : 12-02-2005 at 06:33 PM. |
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#131 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: here and there
Posts: 3,514
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Actually the first world war is a bad example there Earniel .. it could and was forseen, all the nations arming, various alliances ... ( i have studied this in depth - long ago, mind, getting a first)
the death of one man? nay that was but a trigger - it was going to happen anyway. regarding Paris - well, ok, but it would have been something else then. But, look you, what was the Muslim or Asian or African or whatever / wherever poulation in France, Germany and the UK pre war? What is it now? What are the trends? Integration is a good thing, but if states such as france that are rigidly backward looking in terms of history and have quite culturally (mainstream) ingrained nationalistic ideals in terms of defending it's heritage and language (no bad thing on it's own) but have significant growing immigrant cultures that are not being integrated, then Spock is clearly right .... the demographics are quite clear ... you cannot bury your head in the sand like a drunken french foreign legionairre ... partly because it'll not be very pleasant ![]() sand is not pleasant in the eyes or mouth ![]() so, yes, maybe sketchy but an indicator nevertheless - the world is smaller then ever before now with low cost flights, cars, trains, world wide internet and media access, free markets etc etc .... the movement of people and ideas of identity are changing at rates never ever seen on this earth, and new situations arise ... the world is changing, and we must ALL adapt - if we wish to live happy, peaceful and worthwhile lives. |
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#132 | |
The Chocoholic Sea Elf Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: N?n in Eilph (Belgium)
Posts: 14,363
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Quote:
All I'm saying is that one must be careful to accept these predictions as inescapable. Trends and changes in populations are certainly happening, and to some level can also be predicted. But there are other unpredictatble factors that can send societies to evolve in a quite different direction.
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We are not things. |
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#133 |
Elf Lord
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: here and there
Posts: 3,514
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![]() ![]() best BB ![]() |
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#134 |
The Chocoholic Sea Elf Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: N?n in Eilph (Belgium)
Posts: 14,363
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![]() In any case, that certainly was a trend you couldn't spot in birth rates and immigration records. ![]()
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We are not things. |
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#135 |
Quasi Evil
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Maryland, US
Posts: 4,634
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Well welcome to the human continuum. Perhaps the Neanderthals should have cried and moaned about those damn homo sapiens when they had the chance eh? Well personally I say just strap yourself in for the ride. And let nature take its proper course.
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"People's political beliefs don't stem from the factual information they've acquired. Far more the facts people choose to believe are the product of their political beliefs." "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." |
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#136 | |
An enigma in a conundrum
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 6,476
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Quote:
The 'muslimisation' of Europe is happening, but you have to look around to see it. Simply playing "lets all get along" won't change the fact that it's happening.
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Vizzini: "HE DIDN'T FALL?! INCONCEIVABLE!!" Inigo: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." |
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#137 | |||
Friendly Neigborhood Sith Lord
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA
Posts: 2,080
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Quote:
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I was Press Secretary for the Berlioz administration and also, but not limited to, owner and co operator of fully armed and operational battle station EDDIE Quote:
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#138 |
Quasi Evil
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Maryland, US
Posts: 4,634
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Well certainly dont ban them from marrying...
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"People's political beliefs don't stem from the factual information they've acquired. Far more the facts people choose to believe are the product of their political beliefs." "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." |
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#139 | ||
Friendly Neigborhood Sith Lord
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA
Posts: 2,080
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*sigh*
geez rex why you gotta take life so seriously? lighten up a little. after all some straight people should not be allowed to marry. BTW were off topic this is about france and stuff not Canada.
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I was Press Secretary for the Berlioz administration and also, but not limited to, owner and co operator of fully armed and operational battle station EDDIE Quote:
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#140 |
Quasi Evil
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Maryland, US
Posts: 4,634
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Hey thats my version of dry humor. Sometimes you have to figure it out without the smilie giveaways...
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"People's political beliefs don't stem from the factual information they've acquired. Far more the facts people choose to believe are the product of their political beliefs." "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." |
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