Wraiths Before the Ring

[Alcuin]

If I failed to comprehend the thrust of this, then I apologize; but I must disagree. I spent over a year working on my essay Decline of the Lifespan of the Númenóreans. In one of the footnotes is a model similar to the one that to Tolkien almost certainly used: I believe there’s probably a sketch-graph someplace in his notes that he used to estimate the dates of the births and deaths of the kings. The model fits far too well for coincidence: the biggest deviation in the births and deaths of the Kings of Númenor from the straight-line laid out in the essay is –8% for the death of Tar-Elendil, and after that, there is not a single deviation that’s even two-and-a-half percent. The evidence is overwhelming that there are no missing kings in “The Line of Elros�, and the omission of Tar-Ardamir was just that: an omission, an error, as CJR Tolkien describes in footnote 11.

But besides that, Think: if one of the Kings of Númenor had become a Ringwraith, he would never have surrendered throne!

The three Númenóreans with Rings of Power probably came back to Númenor sometime during the reign of Tar-Minastir. During the days of Tar-Ciryatan, and possibly early in the reign of Tar-Atanamir, they poisoned the society of the Dúnedain with lies and disbelief about the purposes of Men in Arda, and then they went back to Middle-earth. Their activities are the fall of the shadow upon Númenor.

Finally, a king does not live in privacy. He is surrounded by family, courtiers, retainers, and subjects. These guys died, and when they died, they were embalmed and buried in state funerals. It is not conceivable that the Dúnedain would have failed to notice if

• the king didn’t age,
• the king didn’t die, or
• the king wasn’t buried.

I don’t think there is any question that the Witch-king was a member of the House of Elros. Whomever he was, he wanted to be king, and he wanted it so much that he wrecked Arnor and almost destroyed Gondor, too. He sowed the seeds of Númenor’s Downfall, he probably cozened Tar-Ciryatan into deposing his father, and he was almost certainly the person who inspired Tar-Atanamir’s disbelief and rebellion against Eru. But there is just simply no evidence in the texts that the Lord of the Nazgûl was or ever had been a King of Númenor.