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#10 |
An enigma in a conundrum
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 6,476
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Carl Sagan said it best
We live on a hunk of rock and metal that circles a humdrum star that is one of 400 billion other stars that make up the Milky Way Galaxy which is one of billions of other galaxies which make up a universe which may be one of a very large number, perhaps an infinite number, of other universes. That is a perspective on human life and our culture that is well worth pondering.
If we consider the statistics of one, our own case--and take a typical time from the origin of a planetary system to the development of a technical civilization to be 4.6 billion years--what follows? We would not expect civilizations on different worlds to evolve in lock step. Some would reach technical intelligence more quickly, some more slowly, and-- doubtless--some never. But the Milky Way is filled with second- and third-generation stars (that is, those with heavy elements) as old as 10 billion years. So let's imagine two curves: The first is the probable timescale to the evolution of technical intelligence. It starts out very low; by a few billion years it may have a noticeable value; by 5 billion years, it's something like 50 percent; by 10 billion years, maybe it's approaching 100 percent. The second curve is the ages of Sun-like stars, some of which are very young-- they're being born right now--some of which are as old as the Sun, some of which are 10 billion years old.
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