The Lord of the Rings discussion: Chapter 1, A Long-expected Party

[brownjenkins]

i think the doubling of the watch was gandalf playing it safe... along with him wanting to find out if sauron was looking for bilbo's ring (i.e. he wanted to be the first to know if people were looking)

if he had the slightest suspicion that sauron knew about the ring he would have sent bilbo or frodo to rivendell on the spot with the ring... certainly a safer place... even in the shire, the ring would not have remained hidden for all the following years if sauron knew where to look

and in fact, once he did have evidence that sauron had suspicions, his first reaction was to have frodo head to rivendell